MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 25TH JUNE 2012 TO 29TH JUNE 2012

After the disappointment from the RBI policy and FOMC meeting regarding the QE3, and successful outcome of Grecce elections  market closed almost flat on weekly basis at Nifty 5146.05 & Sensex at 16972.51 both uo around 0.13%. Disappointment from the FED meeting lead to decline in commodity and crude prices however declining value of Rupee in terms of Dollar neutralised the effect of fall in crude prices.

The coming week is full of events like resignation of Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, as expected finance minisrty will be under the Prime Minister there will be move by the finance minsitry and RBI simultaneously to annonce the measures to contain the falling value of rupee, policy measures will be on the limelight as F.M has indicated on friday. Globally, European Summit on 28-29th June 2012 may further pledge help to Greece. Summing up broadly the market is likely to be in a range of 4780-5250 breach of which may give fresh move in the either side. In the near term as expected Nifty may test 5350-5400, if some very good announcements are made in days to come. Stocks to buy are Exide, Hind Unilever, Indian Hotels, Arvind Mills, Jubliant Food, Bombay Dyeing etc.,

Technically speaking the no trading zone for the Nifty is 5070-5180
If Nifty sustains above 5180, buy with a stop-loss of 5070 for the target of 5200-5250-5280++

If Nifty sustains below 5070, sell with a stop-loss of 5180 for the target of 5000-4950.

This week nifty may have positive bias and trading on Nifty options will be more beneficial than the futures.

Broadly as said earlier before the start of June series that market will be moving higher in the series, I expect Nifty to see its expiry above 5250-5300+++

Following Stocks looks good to buy for short term delivery(45-60 days):

1. SHALIMAR PAINT: Buy for the target of 700+++

2. BOMBAY DYE: Buy for the target of 580+++

3. ARVIND MILLS: Buy for the target of 85+++ very soon.


Astrologically: Markets will be bullish in the june series and then there will be a fall for 15-18 days, where the markets will be highly volatile and test both 5250-4750, there after I am expecting a break-out on the higher side, where Nifty will cross 6300+++ by next 4-6 months 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 18TH JUNE 2012 TO 21ST JUNE 2012

MARKET PERSISTED TO MOVE HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK EVEN AFTER BLIPS ON ACCOUNT OF CERTAIN DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL CUES. NIFTY ENDED AT 5139.05 AND SENSEX ENDED AT 16949.83 WITH A WEEKLY GAIN OF ALMOST 1.39%. AMID THE SAGGING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND RISING INFLATION, R.B.I IS EXPECTED TO CUT REPO-RATE BY 25bps, POST THE ESCALATED INFLATION THAT STOOD AT 7.55% FOR MAY 2012 AGAINST 7.23% IN APRIL 2012. THE MARKET PRIOR TO THIS NUMBER WAS EXPECTING 50bps CUT BECAUSE OF POOR INDUSTRIAL GROWTH OF MEAGER 0.1% AND SLOWEST GDP GROWTH IN NINE YEARS AT 5.30%. 


HENCE KEEPING IN VIEW ALL THE FACTORS LIKE MOUNTING INFLATION, FALLING CRUDE PRICES, WEAK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND SHARP DECLINE IN GDP ETC SHALL EXERT MUCH PRESSURE ON RBI TO CUT THE RATES ON 18TH JUNE POLICY, LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS.  DOMESTICALLY THE POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE FINANCE MINISTRY DUE TO CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF Mr. PRANAB MUKHERJEE TO THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATURE, SHALL POSE A QUESTION MARK IN THE MIND OF THE MARKET ANALYSTS AND PARTICIPANTS, WHO IS THE NEXT???? I AM SURE MARKET SHALL NOT LIKE THIS IF THE NAME OF THE NEW FINANCE MINISTER IS NOT DECLARED SOON. GLOBALLY THE FOMC MEET ON 19TH-20TH JUNE 2012, THE 7TH GROUP OF TWENTY INDUSTRIAL & DEVELOPING NATIONS (G-2O) SUMMIT SCHEDULED TO BE HELD ON 18-19TH JUNE 2012 AT MEXICO ON VARIOUS ISSUES INCLUDING EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS IS ALSO IMPORTANT EVENT WHICH THE MARKET WILL KEENLY WATCH. ALSO THE OUTCOME OF GREECE ELECTIONS SHALL MARK THE SENTIMENTS SIGNIFICANTLY AS STILL THE EXIT POLLS RELEASED SHOWED NO MAJORITY TO ANY PARTY. EUROPEAN UNION SUMMIT ON 28-29TH JUNE 2012 WILL BE THE FINAL KEY EVENT TO WATCH FOR.


GOING FORWARD IN-SPITE OF VARIOUS CONSECUTIVE EVENTS LYING AHEAD NIFTY MAY BROADLY TAKE THE SUPPORT AROUND 5000 (SENSEX 16600) ON ACCOUNT OF VALUE BUYING EMERGING FOR THE LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE. THINGS MAY BE MORE BY LAST WEEK OF JUNE.


NIFTY HAS GIVEN A PULL BACK RALLY OF ALMOST 7.86% IN LAST  TEN TRADING SESSIONS. NOW IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 5250-4980 IN THE SHORT TERM. IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO MOVE ABOVE 5250, AN UPWARD RALLY MIGHT CARRY IT TO 5350 AND THEN 5430 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER A BREACH OF 4980 WOULD INDICATE THE END OF CURRENT RALLY AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY MAY TEST 4900 AND THEN 4770. ALL LONG POSITIONS SHOULD BE HELD WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 4980.


FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE OF THE NIFTY IS 5065-5190.
BUY CE5200 & CE5300: WHEN NIFTY CROSSES ABOVE 5190, KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5065 FOR THE TARGET OF 5250 & 5350.
BUY PE5100 & PE5000: WHEN NIFTY BREACHES BELOW 5065 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5190 FOR THE TARGET OF 4980 & 4900.


FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE WORTH BUYING ON EVERY DIP:


1.EXIDE IND(134.35): BUY AT CMP OR AT DECLINE FOR THE TARGET OF 150++( DELIVERY PICK)


2. TECH MAHINDRA(698.40): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 625-635+++. KEEP 670 AS STOP-LOSS.(SHORT TERM TRADE).


ASTROLOGICALLY: AS EXPECTED MARKET ROSE AFTER THE SOLAR ECLIPSE (MAY 21ST) AND HAS BEEN CONSTANTLY ON RISE WILL TAKE A PAUSE FROM TUESDAY,19TH JUNE 2012 TO 25TH JUNE 2012. THIS PERIOD MAY NOT BE GOOD. NIFTY MAY TAKE TEST OF 5250 AND THEN COME DOWN. HOWEVER FROM THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE TO MID OF JULY MARKETS WILL RISE. PLEASE TAKE NOTE THAT SATURN IS BECOMING DIRECT ON 25TH JUNE AND VENUS ON 27TH JUNE WILL CHANGE THE MARKET SENTIMENT TO POSITIVE. 
IMP: TAKE YOUR OWN CALL ON MARKETS AND DON'T RELY COMPLETELY ON ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 4TH JUNE 2012 TO 8TH JUNE 2012

EVEN AFTER THE NEGATIVE DOMESTIC & GLOBAL CUES, POOR GDP NUMBERS, FEARS OF FURTHER DEEPENING OF EURO ZONE CRISIS, NIFTY TOOK SUPPORT OF 4800 AND FAILED TO TAKE A SHARP KNOCK. SENSEX ENDED AT 15965.16 & NIFTY AT 4841.60 DOWN ALMOST 1.50%.


GOING FORWARD THE POOR GDP NUMBERS MAY PROPEL THE RBI TO CUT THE RATES FURTHER. ALSO THE FALLING CRUDE PRICES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE LOWERING OF INFLATION AND ON EXPECTATION OF AVERAGE TO GOOD MONSOON MAY LEAD TO BOOST THE SENTIMENTS.
THE FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE INDIAN RUPEE MAY BE CHECKED BY THE AGGRESSIVE INTERVENTION OF RBI. HENCE I MAINTAIN MY VIEW THAT NIFTY MAY TAKE STRONG SUPPORT AT 4800 LEVELS AT WHICH IT TRADES AT 12xFY13, WHICH IS INEXPENSIVE. ANY GLOBAL CONTINGENCY OR SHOCKING NEWS, ESPECIALLY ON EURO-ZONE CRISIS MAY WEAKEN THE SENTIMENTS FURTHER BELOW 4800 BUT FOR VERY SHORT TERM GIVING AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
BUYING OF QUALITY STOCKS LIKE HIND UNILEVER, ITC, SBI, AXIS BANK, 


FOR LAST 18 TRADING SESSIONS NIFTY HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING IN THE RANGE OF 4790-5020. NOW THE IMMEDIATE CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF THE NIFTY IS 4770, BREAK ON WHICH NIFTY SHALL TEST 4720 & 4660. ON THE HIGHER SIDE BREACH OF 5040 MAY INDICATE TREND REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND AND THEN NIFTY COULD ALSO TEST 5130-5250. HENCE ALL TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP A STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4770 TO ALL LONG POSITIONS.


FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY IS 4770-4910.
BUY NIFTY CALL(CE4900 & CE5000) IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4910 FOR THE IMMEDIATE TARGET OF 4960-5040 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4770.
BUY NIFTY PUT(PE4800 & PE4700) IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 4770 FOR THE IMMEDIATE TARGET OF 4720-4640 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4910.


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT IN DELIVERY FOR 45-60 DAYS HOLDING.


1. MCNALLY (532629 - CMP:87.70): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 95-100++++


2. SHALIMAR PAINT(509874-CMP: 590.20): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 650-700+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. 

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 28TH MAY 2012 TO 1ST JUNE 2012

Indian Markets ended the previous week on a volatile note among the various news flow like huge petrol price hike, developments in the Euro Zone, falling value of rupee being the main. Sensex ended at 16217.82 & Nifty at 4920.40 on 0.5% hike on weekly basis.


Going forward Indian markets are likely to remain volatile because of global cues, uncertainties in Euro-Zone regarding Greece, absence of any positive domestic trigger and policy paralysis on the part of government. 
Government may soon take decision on roll back on petrol price hike, F&O Settlement on 31st May, GDP Figure of India for Q4FY11-12 on 31st May are the main very short term factors which should be watched for.


Its important to note that the volatility in the value of rupee shall come to settle only after the Greece issue is resolved which could be any time after the second elections on 17th June and the monsoon reports which will start trickling in from the June first week, which will decide the future course of market in June series.


As valuation wise Nifty is trading around 12xFY13 EPS which is cheap and hence augurs the buying around these levels of Nifty 4800. As inflation, crude and dollar will cool down in near term and RBI may go on with more rate cuts in future, markets will anticipate this and give a bullish  rally breakout till 5650-5800++ in near term.


Hence I recommend to shut down all TV Channels, websites and tip providers and start buying the select stocks........


Nifty is consolidating in the range of 5040 and 4790 and it is expected the it will continue to remain in the same range for some time. If nifty is able to remain and close above 5040 it may test 5130. However breach of 4790 shall bring a fall in Nifty till 4720 and then 4640 in the extreme short term. Hence traders should maintain the stop loss of 4770 for long positions.


FOR THIS WEEK: No trading zone for Nifty is 4880-4960. 
Buy CE4900 & CE5000 if Nifty breaks above 4960 for the target of 5040-5130
Buy PE4900 & PE4800 if Nifty breaks below 4880 for the target of 4790-4720.


TRADING TIPS OF THE WEEK:


1. TATA STEEL(408.60): Buy for the target of 430-444 buy next 14-15 days.


2. CAN BANK(396): Buy for the target of 407-419 by next 14-15 days.


Astrologically: Markets are likely to take up trend from the 2nd week of June series. No Panic and no worries soon we will see rise..................

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21ST MAY 2012 TO 25TH MAY 2012

INDIAN MARKETS OUTPERFORMED THE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MARKETS, HOWEVER CLOSED ALMOST  0.75% LOWER ON THE WEEKLY BASIS IN BOTH NSE & BSE. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4891.45 & SENSEX CLOSED AT 16152.75. VALUE OF RUPEE SLID TO ALL TIME LOW TO MAKE A NEW HISTORY MAINLY DUE TO HUGE OIL IMPORTS. INFLATION FIGURE FOR APRIL 2012 WAS AT SHOCKING 7.23%, WHICH RAISED WORRIES ON FACES OF INVESTORS ABOUT THE FURTHER ACTION OF RBI ON RATE CUTS. GLOBAL WORRIES OVER THE EURO-ZONE CRISIS AND CURRENT A/C DEFICIT OF INDIA MADE THE INVESTORS NERVOUS.

AS EXPECTED NIFTY TOOK SUPPORT AROUND 4750-4800 LEVEL ZONE AND BOUNCED BACK HELPED BY BETTER THAN EXPECTED RESULTS OF SBI, WHICH LED ALL ROUND BUYING IN BANKING SECTOR. THE VALUE GENERATED DUE TO DECLINE IN CRUDE OIL PRICES INTERNATIONALLY  HAS BEEN ERASED OR OFF-SET BY FALL IN VALUE OF RUPEE. HENCE THERE IS NO CHEER DUE TO DECLINING CRUDE PRICES ON INDIAN STOCK MARKET. 

GOING FORWARD THE COMING WEEKS WILL BE VERY ACTION PACKED. GOVERNMENT & RBI BOTH MAY COME OUT WITH ACTIONS NEEDED TO CONTAIN THE FALL IN VALUE OF RUPEE. THIS MAY GIVE STABILITY TO VALUE OF RUPEE IN TERMS OF FOREX AND CONSEQUENTLY WE MAY SEE STABILITY IN STOCK MARKETS ALSO.

GLOBALLY DEVELOPMENTS IN EURO-ZONE AND GREECE MAY AFFECT THE SENTIMENTS.

I CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SAME VIEW -- MARKETS WILL GET STRONG SUPPORT AT 4800 LEVELS AS IT TRADES AT 12xFY13 EPS WHICH IS INEXPENSIVE. ALSO INFLATION MAY COOL AND GRADUALLY THE MONSOON PROGRESS WILL MAKE TYE MARKETS TO MOVE UP  FROM JUNE. HENCE I MAINTAIN BUY IN SELECT  STOCKS....

TECHNICALLY, THE DAILY CHART O NIFTY SHOW THAT IT HAS GIVEN A CORRECTION OF ALMOST 9.30% IN JUST 15 DAYS TIME SPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO GET STRONG SUPPORT AT 4720. IF NIFTY BREACHES THIS LEVEL SHORT TERM TREND WILL BECOME NEGATIVE AND IT MAY FURTHER GO DOWN TO 4640. HOWEVER BREACH OF 4960 WOULD INDICATE THE REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY MAY TEST 5130 IN VERY SHORT TERM. HENCE TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 4720 TO ALL LONG POSITIONS. INVESTORS ARE ADVISED TO BUY AND ADD MORE ON EVERY DIP FOR INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVE OF 12-18 MONTHS.

FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY IS 4770-4960.

BUY CE5000 & CE 5100 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 4960 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4770 FOR THE TARGET OF 5040-5130

BUY PE4800 & PE4700 IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 4770 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4960 FOR THE TARGET OF 4720-4640.

I HAVE POSITIVE VIEW ON THE FOLLOWING STOCKS FOR INVESTMENT (12-18 MONTHS):

1. DELTA CORP (62.60): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 150+++

2. ZEE LEARN (18.75): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 200+++( A VERY GOOD BUY FOR ALL)

3. CERA SANTIARY (249.85): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 1000++

4. LOVABLE (311.05): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 2000+++

JUST BUY THE SHARES IN DELIVERY AND ADD ON EVERY FALL

ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS WILL BE POSITIVE AFTER THE 3RD JUNE 2012. PLANETS WILL FAVOR BULLS IN JUNE SERIES........

ENJOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.