MARKET VIEW FOR 14TH OCTOBER 2011

INDIAN MARKETS OPENED IN POSITIVE HOWEVER LATER SLIPPED IN THE RED. AFTERNOON SESSION SAW A SLACK TRADE WITH TRADERS BOOKING PROFIT. INDICES SAW BOTH POSITIVE & NEGATIVE SWINGS SEVERAL TIMES. WEAK GLOBAL CUES COMING FROM EUROPE MADE THE MARKET CLOSE IN RED. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5077.85, DOWN 21.55 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16883.92, DOWN 74.47 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES CLOSED POSITIVELY FLAT. PROFIT BOOKING WAS WITNESSED IN ALL SECTORS EXCEPT BANKING, I.T & REALITY.


GOING FORWARD, RBI'S POLICY AND GLOBAL CUES REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THE MARKET. ALSO CORPORATE RESULTS AND CURRENCY RATE(Rs/$) SHALL BE THE KEY PARAMETERS TO WATCH FOR MARKET DIRECTION. SINCE POOR IIP DATA 4.1%, DESPITE LOWER BASE, SHOWS THAT THE RBI'S POLICY HAS MADE THE GROWTH TO SLOWDOWN, CUES ARE COMING IN THAT RBI MIGHT PAUSE THIS TIME AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF INFLATION TOPPING OUT, HOWEVER IT MAY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE  DEVELOPMENTS. THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE NIFTY TILL RBI POLICY IS OUT SHALL BE 4840-5230. CLEARLY THE MARKETS MAY INCH HIGHER TO 5230-5330 SOON.


NIFTY HAS CLOSED IN NEGATIVE TODAY, GOING FORWARD THE SUPPORT STANDS AT 5000 AND RESISTANCE AT 5170. CURRENTLY NIFTY IS IN UPTREND IN TERMS OF THE 20 DMA LIES AROUND 4970 AND 40 DMA AROUND 5030, HENCE FOR MARKET TO BECOME WEAK OR GO DOWN NIFTY WILL HAVE TO BREAK 5030 FIRST AND THEN 4970 ALSO, IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE CURRENT RALLY WILL TERMINATE. HOWEVER SHORTS WILL BE  GOOD ONLY BELOW 4940. ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 5230 A SHORT TERM UPSWING MAY EXTEND TO 5340-5400 ALSO. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THESE LEVELS ARE TECHNICAL GUIDANCE, IT DOESN'T MEANS THAT NIFTY WILL GO TO 5400 LEVELS, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN THE MIND, WHILE ENTERING IN ANY LONG OR SHORT POSITION.


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5020 AND RESISTANCE AT 5110. TRADE SHORT OR LONG IF THE NIFTY BREACHES THE LEVELS.




ASTROLOGICALLY: KINDLY NOTE THAT MY VIEW OF PLANETS AND MARKET STILL REMAINS THE SAME. WE MIGHT SEE SOME GLOBAL TREMORS IN THE LAST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER OR IN DECEMBER. THERE COULD BE A PANIC LIKE SITUATION IN ASIAN MARKETS. HENCE GREAT DEAL OF CAUTION IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. MAY BE THE MARKET MAY GIVE GOOD ENTERING OPPORTUNITY LATER.


THERE ARE 30% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN THE ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS, HENCE USE YOUR OWN WISDOM AND JUDGEMENT AND CONSULT YOUR ADVISER/CONSULTANT BEFORE ACTING ON MY VIEWS. 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 13TH OCTOBER 2011

A STRONG RALLY WAS SEEN AFTER THE INFOSYS RESULTS AND POOR THAN EXPECTED IIP DATA AT 4.1%FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2011. AS SUGGESTED NIFTY RALLIED ABOVE 5020 TO TOUCH 5110. ALL ROUND BUYING WAS SEEN IN I.T., CAPITAL GOODS, BANKING ETC. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5099.40, UP BY 125.05 POINTS, AFTER TOUCHING THE TOP OF 5109.80, JUST BELOW THE RESISTANCE LEVEL OF 5110. SENSEX CLOSED AT 16958.39, UP BY 421.92 POINTS. IN ALL MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE CLOSED IN GREEN BY MORE THAN A PERCENTAGE. MARKET RALLIED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE POOR IIP DATA SHOWS THAT THE IMPACT OF CONTINUOUS RATE HIKES HAVE NOW STARTED BEING FELT IN THE ECONOMY AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CALL FOR HALT IN THE INTEREST RATE HIKE IN NEXT POLICY MEET OF RBI ON OCTOBER 25TH, 2011.


GOING FORWARD, NIFTY MIGHT TEST 5120-5170 WHERE THERE IS STRONG RESISTANCE. IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CONTINUE ABOVE 5170 THEN 5230 AND 5330 MAY BE THE NEXT TARGET. BUT ONE MUST NOTE THAT IF THE CUES ARE DISTURBING THEN NIFTY MIGHT TAKE RESISTANCE AT 5230 LEVELS. HENCE KEEP EYE ON THE RESISTANCE LEVELS.
ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN 4970-4950 THEN THE CURRENT RALLY WOULD TERMINATE AND THEN NIFTY WILL TAKE NEAREST SUPPORT AT 4800, WHICH IS THE LEVEL TO GO SHORT. HENCE NOW ALL LONGS SHOULD BE KEPT WITH A STOP-LOSS OF 4970-50.


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5060 AND RESISTANCE AT 5110. IF NIFTY HOLDS ABOVE 5110 THEN 5170 AND 5230 WILL BE SEEN AND FAILING TO HOLD 5060 WILL RESULT IN FALL TILL 5020 AND THEN TO 4970.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 12TH OCTOBER 2011

MARKET MOVED IN A RANGE BOUND MOVE AFTER THE TWO SESSIONS OF STRONG UP MOVE IT PAUSED AND STARTED CONSOLIDATING. SENSEX WENT HIGH OF 16774.12 AND CLOSED AT 16536.47, DOWN 20.76 AND NIFTY WENT HIGH OF 5045.10 HOWEVER CLOSED DOWN 5.25 AT 4974.35. TRADERS BOOKED PROFIT AHEAD OF INFOSYS Q2 RESULTS AND IIP DATA, SCHEDULED ON WEDNESDAY. 


GOING FORWARD, IF INFOSYS DELIVERS GOOD RESULT AND GUIDANCE THEN THE MARKET MAY SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORT COVERING AND NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5170-5200 ZONE. IF THE IIP DATA IS STRONG, INFOSYS GIVES GOOD GUIDANCE AND INFLATION FIGURE REMAINS ALARMING( DATA ON 14TH OCT), THEN RBI MAY CONSIDER HIKING REPO RATE BY 25bps ON ITS NEXT POLICY MEET, SCHEDULED ON OCTOBER 25TH, 2011, ELSE THERE MIGHT BE PAUSE IF THE INFLATION FIGURE SHOWS THE INITIAL SIGNS OF COOLING. HENCE IN ALL THERE WILL BE A CRUCIAL 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS AND MARKETS MEY BEHAVE ON BOTH DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL CUES. VOLATILITY IS EXPECTED TO SHOW ITS DRAMA. NONETHELESS  ANALYST BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT RALLY IS SHORT COVERING AND MIGHT LOOSED STEAM ANY TIME IF THE POOR CUES START DROPPING IN.


AFTER MAKING A LOW OF 4728.30 ON OCTOBER 3 NIFTY HAS GIVEN A RALLY OF ALMOST 7.98% IN JUST FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. HENCE NIFTY MAY CONSOLIDATE IN THE RANGE OF 4800-5110. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4800 ON THE DOWN SIDE THEN IT MAY FALL TO 4700-4650 ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY MANAGES TO BREAK AND CLOSE ABOVE 5110 THEN 5170-5230 WILL BE THE SHORT TERM TARGET.


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4940  AND STRONG RESISTANCE AT 5020. IF NIFTY MOVES/CLOSES ABOVE 5020 THEN NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5065-5110 SIMILARLY IF NIFTY BREAKS 4940 THEN IT MAY FALL TO 4900-4860.


TO MY VIEW: ONE SHOULD WAIT FOR NIFTY TO TOUCH 5170-5230, AS THE DATA & RESULTS MAY BRING STRENGTH & SENTIMENT FOR BULLS SO WAIT AND BUY PUTs WHEN NIFTY TOUCHES 5170-5230 AND PROFITS WILL BE MADE WHEN NIFTY SLIPS FROM RESISTANCE.


ONE MORE STOCK WHICH IS ADDED, ONCE AGAIN IN MY LOVE LIST IS TTK PRESTIGE. BUY THIS STOCK ON CMP(2851.60) OR ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 3250-3300-3500.


I am worried about the Global Economy and Markets in months to come.
Interesting Article one can read:http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/ern390_tallman.pdf

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. 

MARKET VIEW FOR 11TH OCTOBER 2011

ON POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES, WE SAW A STRONG MARKET YESTERDAY, WHERE HEAVY WEIGHTS LIKE RELIANCE, ONGC, INFOSYS PARTICIPATED AND INDICES SAW ANOTHER SHORT COVERING RALLY. NIFTY ENDED AT 4979.60, UP BY 91.55 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16557.23, UP BY 324.69 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES WERE UP BY 1.36% & 0.97% RESPECTIVELY.


GOING FORWARD, Q2 RESULTS, WHERE PERFORMANCE AND GUIDANCE BY THE INDIAN CORPORATES, SHALL GUIDE THE FUTURE COURSE OF MARKET. INFOSYS WILL DELIVER ITS RESULT ON 12TH OCT, WEDNESDAY, ALSO THE AUGUST IIP DATA ON 12TH OCTOBER, INFLATION NUMBERS ON 14TH OCTOBER, WILL PROVIDE VITAL CUES FOR THE RBI's  ACTION IN HALF YEAR MONETARY POLICY REVIEW, SCHEDULED ON 25TH OCTOBER, 2011.
ALSO THE GLOBAL CUES SHALL KEEP ON PLAYING ON THE SWINGS OF MARKET FROM TIME TO TIME AS PER IMPORTANCE AND SIGNIFICANCE. 
ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ANY POSITIVE NEWS DOMESTICALLY WILL PROVIDE THE SHORT TERM SUPPORT AND PUSH TO THE MARKET, GLOBAL CUES, WHICH REMAINS THE PRIME FOCUS FOR FIIs, MAY WIPE OFF THE SHORT LIVED CHEER, IF ANY. 
ANALYST BELIEVE THAT THERE REMAINS THE DOWN SIDE RISK IN THE MARKET AND RALLY IN NIFTY FOR LAST TWO TRADING SESSIONS SHALL BE SHORT LIVED AND INDICES MAY SINK ON ANY FRESH GLOBAL TREMORS. HENCE CAUTION IS ADVISED IN THE NEAR TERM.


COMING ON TECHNICALS: NIFTY HAS MADE A GAP BETWEEN 5060 AND 5110 ON 22ND SEPTEMBER, 2011. AS SAID YESTERDAY, IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 4950 THERE COULD BE 200 POINTS MOVE, NIFTY CLOSED AT 4979.60 SHOWS THAT THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES THAT NIFTY MAY ATTEMPT TO FILL THE GAP AND MOVE HIGHER UP TO 5110. ANY LONG CREATED IN NIFTY/STOCKS SHOULD BE HELD WITH THE STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4800. BREACH OF 4800 ON THE DOWN SIDE WILL TERMINATE THE CURRENT UP-SWING AND THEN NIFTY MAY RETEST 4750-4650 IN NO TIME, AS THE SENTIMENT IS CAUTIOUS.


STRATEGY: BUY NIFTY CALLS (CE4900 & CE5000) KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4800 OR ELSE WAIT FOR NIFTY TO MOVE HIGHER AROUND 5100-5110, TO BUY PUT OPTIONS(PE5100 & PE5000), IN ANTICIPATION OF FALL FROM THESE LEVELS KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5170 ON CLOSING BASIS.


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4940  AND RESISTANCE AT 5020. BREAK OF 4940 SHALL FORCE NIFTY TO TEST 4900 & 4860.  HOWEVER SUSTENANCE ABOVE 5020 SHALL TAKE NIFTY TO 5070-5110.
IN THIS MANNER: 4940-5020 IS NO TRADING ZONE, BUY CE5000 & CE5100 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5020 KEEPING 4940 AS STOP-LOSS AND BUY PE5000 & PE4900 IF NIFTY BREAKS 4940, KEEPING 5020 AS STOP-LOSS.


I DON'T CONSIDER FIT TO GIVE ANY STOCK SPECIFIC CALL TODAY.


ASTROLOGICALLY: I SEE A MAJOR CHAOTIC AND POOR DAYS IN THE WORLD MARKETS ON 13TH, 17TH AND LAST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER, BETWEEN 20TH-30TH OCTOBER . 
PERSONALLY, I AM BEARISH ON INDICES.


THERE ARE 30% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN THE ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. HENCE CONSULT THE ELIGIBLE, SUITABLE AND  COMPETENT PERSON, OR USE YOUR OWN WISDOM BEFORE ACTING ON MY VIEWS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

ASTROLOGICAL VIEW OF THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK 10TH OCT 2011 TO 14TH OCT 2011

IMPORTANT DATE(S) IN INDIA'S HISTORY REMARKABLE TO MAKE THE CHART ARE 15TH AUGUST 2011 AND 26TH JANUARY 1950 AT 12 HRS NOON AT DELHI AND ANOTHER IMPORTANT DATE IS THE DATE OF INCORPORATION OF NSE(NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE), i.e., 27TH NOVEMBER 1992 AT 12.00 HRS(NOON) AT MUMBAI.

TAKING THE CHART OF NSE, WHICH SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE A POOR & UNCERTAIN PERFORMANCE OF INDICES IN OCTOBER & DECEMBER. IN FACT THE ENTIRE DASA OF SUN STARTING FROM 2008 TO  2014 WILL BE TROUBLESOME AND WILL NOT GIVE MUCH VALUE TO ITS PARTICIPANTS EXCEPT SOME ANTHRA OF MERCURY & VENUS (MARCH 2012 TO MARCH 2014). 

HOWEVER EMPHASIS SHOULD BE GIVEN MORE TO TRANSIT OF JUPITER (IN ITS RETROGRADE MOTION) IN KETU'S STAR(Aries 13deg 20min- Aries 00deg 00min)   FROM 13TH OCTOBER 2011 TILL 25TH DEC 2011, WHICH SHALL SHOCK THE MARKETS AND MOVE THE INDICES IN SUCH A MANNER WHICH MAY MAKE TRADERS LOOSE AND NUMB (KETHU IN 4TH HOUSE, HOUSE OF NEGATION TO 5TH HOUSE, WHICH DENOTES CHEER IN PARTICIPANTS, HENCE THERE WILL BE GLOOM AND PANIC.). THERE WILL BE DEVASTATING FINANCIAL MARKETS TURMOIL IN THE WORLD. MORE OVER JUPITER IN TRANSIT WILL ALSO BE NEGATIVE WITH MARS AND SATURN OF NATAL CHART OF NSE. TRANSITING JUPITER IS IN 8TH FROM SUN AND MERCURY, WILL MAKE THE SITUATION WORST, ALSO SATURN COMING TO LIBRA WILL NOT BE GOOD AT ALL. I SEE WEAK OCTOBER AND DECEMBER. NOVEMBER WILL BE RELATIVELY GOOD MONTH, WHERE SLIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE SEEN.

HOW SHOULD YOU ACT???????:

ONE CAN BUY PUT OPTIONS AND PICK THE STOCKS, VERY SELECTIVE STOCKS, ON EVERY FALL OF 5%-7% IN STOCKS.

IN THIS WEEK NIFTY WILL BE RANGE BOUND AND THERE WILL BE SUDDEN SHARP RALLIES OF SHORT COVERING ( AS WE HAVE SEEN ON 7TH OCT), HOWEVER THE TREND OF THE MARKET WILL REMAIN DOWN. RANGE WILL BE 4750-4950 BREAK ON EITHER SIDE WILL BRING FRESH 200 POINTS MOVE ON EITHER SIDE.

FOR OCTOBER: NIFTY MAY SEE 4500 ANY TIME AROUND OR AFTER 3RD WEEK OF OCTOBER. IT SEEMS THAT LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER 20TH TO 28TH WILL BE VERY VERY CRUCIAL FOR THE INTERNATIONAL AS WELL AS INDIAN MARKETS. THERE COULD BE A GOOD FALL IN INDICES AND ERODE MUCH VALUE OF INVESTMENT IN STOCKS AND COMMODITIES. HENCE DON'T BUY IN LEVERAGED POSITION AND HOLD SOME CASH ALSO, SO THAT YOU CAN BUY WHEN NIFTY BREAKS THE LOWS TO FORM NEW LOWS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.