MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 17TH SEPTEMBER 2012 TO 21ST SEPTEMBER 2012

Last week Stock & Commodity Markets across the globe cherished on important global development FED introducing the much awaited QE3. Indian Stock Market made huge gains in the led by global and domestic cues. Market sentiments were boosted by hike in diesel prices by Rs5/litre and capping of subsidiased LPG Cylinder to 6/year. After the close of the market on Friday positive steps by the Government towards reforms and policy action like much awaited FDI in Retail(51%) and Aviation (49%), also in Power Trading and Broadcasting,  in process of fiscal consolidation government announced disinvestment plan in 5 PSUs like Hind Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite & MMTC to raise about Rs15000 crore to meet the target of Rs30,000 crores in current fiscal, show that government has come in action now even after much criticism and opposition by the various parties, who have already hampered the growth of the nation in thier own vested interest. Thanks to our visionary Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan for such a bold step and determination.

Going forward, market is keen to watch the political as well as economic developments. The RBI policy review scheduled on Monday,17th September 2012. Market is not expecting any changes in CRR or Repo-rate ( almost 85% of the analysts and participants ) however almost every one believes that RBI will take some major rate cut decision on its October 31st , 2012 Policy, however more concern is on the language of RBI and its stance in tackling the inflation and interest rate amid deteriorating IIP numbers and GDP growth, scaling inflation and pouring foreign funds affecting the forex rates. Hence its important to watch this event. Also sentiment could be affected if the allies of UPA going against the Government's steps take some bold decisions to withdraw from Government. As per the sources , Government is confident of its steps and it will not meet an end before the general elections of 2014.

Analysts and fund managers have turned their view positive in markets and majority believes that after the positive steps taken by the government, global fund managers view will change significantly in favor of India and in months to come it could attract huge investment allocation this could lead Indices to march ahead along with some correction to 5800 in near future (say by 30-45 days) and 6350++ by next 120-150 days.

Several time in past I have mentioned about the markets to march ahead and suggested buying on every fall, even when several experts in media were frightening and checking people to stay away and alert from the market that it will collapse and similar horrible stories..... Those who have bought the quality stocks suggested are in profit now......

Those who have still not participated and waiting for a correction , will never be able to get the stocks in near future as markets may rise significantly from here. Every dip will be bought as there will be deluge of funds from FIIs. Rupee may rise to 48/$. In short term Nifty may rise to 5800 and Sensex to 19500 levels. 

Buy the following Stocks in delivery for 45-60 days:

1. CESC(306.30):Buy for a price target of 340-360-400++

2. DISH TV(76.65):Buy for a price target of 90-100++

3. TRENT(1075.00):Buy for a price target of 1150-1225-1400+++

4. BATA (957.50):Buy for a price target of 1000-1080-1200+++

5. ZEE ENT(169.95): Buy for a price target of 180-192-200++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 10TH SEPTEMBER 2012 TO 14TH SEPTEMBER 2012

Past week has witnessed the positive move on the Indices of Indian Capital Market despite several political & economic concerns and worries. Nifty has closed above the 5350 level ( on Saturday's Special trading session), while Sensex closed around  17750, which shows that ample liquidity  has kept the indices buoyant.

Indian Market is likely to trade higher on hopes of more liquidity flowing into the markets as ECB promised to buy unlimited bonds subject to certain conditions. However the domestic political chaos has led to very pessimistic view in the pushing up of any reform measures in the near future. Monsoon session of the Parliament was totally disgusting and un-fateful. This has given a very weak signal to all investor community across the globe. However the proposed hike in Petrol prices, LPG and Diesel could do some thing positive to cut the widening fiscal deficit.
Coming weeks are very important as there will be certain events which have to play an important impact on the flow of funds in Indian Capital Market. IIP for the month of July 2012, then FOMC meet in US on 13th September, India's WPI number on 14th September will bear directly on the markets and RBI Credit Policy meet on 17th September. 

Hence the week ahead is very very important for Indian Capital Market. Keep close eye on all the events lined up.........

Fund Managers and Investment Analysts believe that Indian Markets will keep on attracting global funds which are available due to ample liquidity. In the Short term Sensex could touch 18200-18400 & Nifty to 5500-5600. 
Stock specific approach shall be the best for getting some gains in these volatile markets.

However one should keep some risk factors in mind. If the FED comes out some thing shocking or unexpected or RBI fails to cut rate in the coming meet could lead to sharp correction in Indices and stocks and then we could see Nifty coming back to 5000 levels. Hence on should be very very selective in stocks.

Technically, after making a low of 5215.60 on Tuesday, Nifty has given a strong pull back rally of almost 3%. Now it expected that this rally will continue to 5450.
If Nifty is able to survive above 5450 the up ward rally might continue to 5510 & 5630. However getting of strong resistance at 5450 and not being able to sustain above that might lead to profit booking by very short term derivative traders and Nifty may come back to 5300 levels. 

FOR THIS WEEK: No trading Zone for the Nifty is 5300 to 5400.

BUY CE 5400 & CE 5500 or Nifty Fut:If Nifty survives above 5400 for the target of 5450 & 5510 keeping stop-loss of 5300.

Buy PE 5400 & PE 5300 or Short Nifty Fut: If Nifty breaks below 5300 for the target of 5250 & 5210 keeping stop-loss of 5400.

Following Stocks are best to trade & Invest( Delivery Holding Period: At least 45-60 days)

1.  LT(1373.30): Buy for the target of 1400-1450-1500+++

2. Auro Pharma(129.60): Buy for the target of 150-160 +++

3. Sun Pharma(666.15): Buy for the target of 685-700-720++++

4.Tinplate(53.55): Buy for the target of 60-65++++

5. Themis Medicare(96.00): Buy for the target of 105-110-120-150++++( Long term holding will be very good)

6. Asian Paints(3770.00): Buy for the target of 3840-3910-3990-4000+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 27TH AUGUST 2012 TO 31ST AUGUST 2012

Last week indices of Indian capital market consolidated with stability and strength getting positive cues from global markets, lowering inflation, progress of monsoon etc. Sensex ended at 17783.21 & Nifty at 5386.70.

Going forward, as said earlier, Indian markets will behave and move as per the sentiments of the FIIs, who are constantly buying and investing following stock specific approach neglecting the rising crude prices and discouraging macroeconomic domestic factors like inflation, interest rate, monsoon and political chaos. Markets will keep rising along with stocks till FIIs like the valuations........Buying on fundamentals is suggested. 

Technically no trade zone for the Nifty is 5340 and 5450.
Buy Nifty Calls of 5400 & 5500 if Nifty rises above 5450, keeping 5340 as Stop-Loss for the target of 5520-5570-5610.

Buy Nifty Puts of 5400 & 5300 if Nifty breaks below 5340, keeping 5450 as Stop-Loss for the target of 5290-5250-5180.

Following Stocks should be bought in Delivery only(45-60 Days):

1. Shasun Pharma for the Target of 180-200++

2. Wochardt Pharma for the target of 1500-1600+++

3. Orrisa Mine for the target of 60000-68000+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 20TH AUGUST 2012 TO 24TH AUGUST 2012

Last week was seen on affirmative note in Indian Stock Markets with Indices gaining around 1% on account some ease in Inflation and relief in overall monsoon deficit.
Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) revised downwards the GDP projection for the current fiscal from earlier 7.5%-8% to 6.7%. It also raised its inflation forecast for the March end to 6.5%-7% from an earlier estimate of 5%-6%. Global cues remain muted. Sensex closed at 17691.08 and Nifty closed at 5366.30.

Going forward, Indian market is likely to continue to trade in a range, while Nifty could touch to 5400 levels. Though the CAG report on Coal Block Allocation is hype and depcits the biasness but its likely to give the sense of fear of deep correction in the market, however cheap valuations and ample liquidity flow may stop such correction. Hence its advisable to buy on correction, if any. Stocks like Deltacorp, Lupin, SBI, Reliance, Tech Mahindra, Kenna Metal, TTK Pharma, TTK Prestige, Lovable, United Spirit, etc., 

As per some experts on Technical Analysis the daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a pull back rally of almost 7.3% in last 15 trading sessions. Now it is expected to face strong resistance at 5440. If Nifty is able to maintain above 5440 then Nifty could rally to 5520 and then to 5640 in the short term. However if Nifty breaches below 5250 it would indicate end of current rally and in that case Nifty may test 5150-5030.

Advise: Analysts are in the view that currently all long positions should be booked out and one should re-enter the market to make fresh long positions as and when Nifty crosses and closes above 5440.


FOR THIS WEEK IN NIFTY FUTURE/ OPTIONS:

1. No trading zone for the Nifty is 5290-5400.

2. Buy Nifty Future or CE5400 & CE5500 If Nifty breaks above 5400, keeping 5290 as stop-loss for the target of 5440 & 5520.

3. Sell Nifty Future or Buy PE5300 & PE5200 if Nifty breaks below 5290, keeping 5400 as stop-loss for the target of 5250 & 5200.

FOLLOWING STOCKS are very Good for delivery in Cash FOR 45-60 Days. Please Don't speculate or over trade just merely on the basis of my recommendations. Buy only if you have money and patience to remain invested for medium term.

1. DELTA CORP(64.35): This Stock was recommended last week and now recommeded again for a very short term target of 77-81++++++. Those Interested could hold this stock for 100-110++ till Deepawali this year and for the target of 350++ in a period of 24 months...... Just buy +++++++.

2. Rallis(127.65): This Stock is now set to rise to 150-160-170+++ Buy for medium term to long term also.

3. Wockhart Pharma(1298.65): I have personally recommeded all my messenger friends around 1100 levels. Stock will soon rise to 1500++++. Very positive outlook in near term. THose holding may continue to hold and may buy fresh if they have money.

4. Vediocon Ind(176.00): Buy this Stock for a short term target of 185-190+++.

5. Lupin(571.15): Buy this Stock for a short term target of 600-630++++. Medium term target 1000++ Long term target of 2500+++.

6. Tata Motors(240.45): Buy this Stock for a short term target of 300-330++++. Medium term target 400++ Long term target of 700+++.

6. Wendt India(1755.00): Buy this Stock for a short term target of 2000-2100++++. Medium term target 2500++ Long term target of 4000+++.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

 

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 13TH AUGUST 2012 TO 17TH AUGUST 2012

For last two weeks Indian Stock Market inched up on the return of Mr. Chidambram as Finance Minister, who said that he intends to shortly unveil a path of fiscal consolidation and positive global cues. On the other hand tepid industrial growth for June 2012, poor earnings by Bharti, Ranbaxy , SBI and others market corrected the markets and individual counters. However Indices climbed almost 2% last week.

Going forward Government intends to fine tune policies and procedures that shall facilitate capital flows into India as said by the F.M. This will be the key driver for the markets in months to come. Other domestic factors like monsoon, crude oil prices, inflation figures, value of rupee in terms of dollar, expectation of rate cut in October shall also affect the sentiments from time to time. Globally it is expected that QE3 shall be introduced in America either by September 2012 or latest by December 2012, which may trigger either a commodity rally or equity rally across the globe. India shall receive substantial portion on allocation of funds in emerging markets said some global fund managers.

It is expected that RBI shall cut Repo Rate(& Reverse Repo Rate) by 50 bps in October credit policy review meet, which may trigger a big rally in Indian equity markets and lead Nifty to 6000+ & Sensex to 20000. To move Nifty above 6000 & Sensex above 20000 needs a trigger of QE3, which may come any time in September 2012 or by December 2012. Hence analysts expect markets to move up and every dip shall be a buying opportunity.

Technically, the daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a pull back rally of almost 6.81% in last two weeks. Now Nifty may face stiff resistance at 5400. If Nifty is able to  maintain above 5400, a pull back rally might carry it to 5520 & 5640 in the short term on the other hand a breach of 5150 would indicate end of the current rally and in that case Nifty may test 5030 & 4950.

Note: I have personally talked to several fund managers who are expecting markets to remain bullish and Nifty to touch 5500 by August expiry. Lets see...........if their expectation comes true.........

FOR COMING WEEK: No trading range for Nifty [CMP(Spot) 5320.40] is 5250-5400. 
Buy CE5400 & CE5500 if Nifty breaks and sustains above 5400 for the target of 5440 & 5510, keeping 5250 as stop-loss to all longs in Indices.
Buy PE5200 & PE5100 if Nifty breaks & sustains below 5250 for the target of 5200 & 5150, keeping 5400 as stop-loss to all shorts in Indices. 

TRADING STOCKS FOR SHORT TERM DELIVERY (45-60 DAYS HOLDING):
In this section I present the stocks on which I have sought opinion of experts, HNIs and Informers. One can consider buying if and only if one can take delivery in cash(until & unless specified other than delivery) and it may take some more time to reach to target or one can book profit earlier which is suitable to the buyer.

1. Reliance(782.10): Buy for the target of 820-840-860++ by the end of August series. One can also buy in either Future or in Options keeping stop-loss of 735-740.

2. OFSS(2853.65): Buy this stock in delivery for the target of 3000-3200-3500-3600++ as there could be some de-listing news on the offing.

3. Fresinus Kabi(89.80): Buy this stock in delivery for the target of 95-105-110++.

4. Shasun Pharma(131.85): Recommended several times in past and booked profit again buy this stock for the short term target of 150-160+++

5. VIP Ind(79.40): Buy in delivery for the target of 85-90-98-110+++++

6. TTK Prestige(3738.70): Buy in delivery or in future for the target of 3980-4050-4140-4220+++.

7. Tech Mahindra(799.50): Recommended several times inpast for last 2 months from 650 levels stock could reach 1000+++ gradually. Just buy and hold for 3 months........

Astrologically: The planets show that markets shall gradually inch up and end higher from here in august series. Nifty could test 5500 by 28th August 2012. One must be buyer on every dip, without any panic or confusion..

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.