MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 19TH MARCH 2012 TO 23RD MARCH 2012

LAST WEEK WAS FULL OF EVENTS THE MOST IMPORTANT OF WHICH WAS UNION BUDGET. AGAINST THE FEAR , F.M DELIVERED A MODERATE BUDGET FOCUSING ON  CUTTING SUBSIDIES AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION. THE FISCAL DEFICIT TARGET OF 5.1% AND LIMITING THE SUBSIDY BELOW 2% IS A WELCOMING AND REALISTIC STEP. HOWEVER LACK OF ENTHUSIASM AND ANY MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT OF REFORMS AND POLICIES LED TO SOME PESSIMISM. 
I HAVE ATTEMPTED TO SUMMARIES THE MAIN POINTS OF THE BUDGET 2012-13 AND THE COMPANIES WHICH MAY BE BENEFITED OR AFFECTED BY IT FOR  YOUR GUIDANCE AND INFORMATION:
HIGHLIGHTS:
1. Fiscal Deficit is projected to be 5.1% of GDP( Analysts believe that its realistic and could be achieved but there is no road map,how will it be achieved);
2. Total Subsidy Expenses (Fuel, Food & Fertiliser) may be around 77784 crore, which may be brought below 2% of GDP(A good projection, indication of hike in fuel prices soon shows that the Government is seriously thinking for it);
3. Disinvestment in PSUs targeted to be 30,000 crore;
4. GDP for the year FY12 may grow around 6.9% and for FY13 may be 7.6%(+/- 0.25%);
5. Fiscal Responsibility and Budget management  Act (FRBM) shall be introduced in the finance bill;
6. Rajiv Gandhi Equity Scheme is to introduced for increasing participation of retail in share market;
7. Implementation of GST shall come effective from August 2012;
8. Service Tax hiked to 12% from 10%;
9. Now all services to be taxed except those in negative list(e.g., Government services, entertainment, education, public transport, etc)
10. STT reduced by 20% on delivery transaction to 0.10% from earlier 0.125%.


COMPANIES GETTING EFFECT FROM THE BUDGET ARE AS FOLLOWS:


(A) INFRASTRUCTURE: Positive for L&T, Lanco Infra, IVRCL Infra, IRB Infra, etc.
(B) BNAKS: Positive for PSU Banks like SBI, PNB, BOB, BoI, CAN BANK, SYNDICATE BANK, etc
(C) FERTILISERS: Positive for Fertiliser stocks like GSFC, NFL, CHAMBAL, GNFC, COROMANDEL etc.
(D) AUTO: Negative for Auto Stocks like MARUTI, TATA MOTORS, MAHINDRA, etc.,
(E) TEXTILE: Shares of the companies like SKUMARS, SIYARAM, LOVABLE, BOMBAY DYEING may be benefited by the budget.
(F) RETAIL: Companies like TRENT, PANTALOON, etc may get benefit on the government's consideration of FDI in multi-brand retail.
(G) OIL & GAS: Companies like GAIL, ONGC, CAIRN etc may be seen in benefit from the budget.
(H) POWER SECTOR: Companies like RPOWER, NTPC, etc may get the benefit.
(I) JEWELRY SECTOR: Companies like TITAN, GITANJALI, RAJESH EXPORTS etc may be getting negative effect from the budget. 


Now what next in the Market and what one should do???


Political situation at the Center and Global Cues may govern the future course of market. Absence of any major event(s) may keep the stock market in a small range of 5200-5600 in Nifty, beyond which Nifty may give +/- 5% move. Any instability on political front at the center, deepening of the eurozone crisis, oil price shocks, rising dollar and weakening rupee may worsen the sentiments and Indices may go down, else every dip is a buying opportunity in stock specific counters. Power, Textile, Sugar sectors may remain in focus in the near term for buying. 
Banking & Real estate stocks may loose shine till the chances of RBI cutting the interest rates become clear. Annual credit policy review by RBI is scheduled on Tuesday, 17th April 2012 and the analysts expect that RBI may look for inflation figures of April & May 2012, before it starts cutting the rates. The main reason for this presumption is that government has hiked customs and excise duty, service tax and indicated for cutting of fuel subsidies, which may again start inflation to rise in months to come, hence RBI may review inflation figure of April & May before it starts the bringing down of key interest rates. On the other side, the growth concerns and unavailability of cheaper funds to India Inc.  have already started affecting the margins & hitting the Capex plans significantly and that's the reason why Indian stock market have been lagging behind amongst its Asian peers and global leaders. Also the price of crude will play an important role. If the global worries ease especially pertaining to Iran and its nuke-plans, falling demand from China, as China's economy is slowing down may brighten the chances of crude coming down below $90/bbl. Weakening rupee is also a very important factor and indicator for market direction. If the value of $ in terms of the rupee rises to 52-54, then certainly its will be problematic for Indian stock market. However there is ray of hope that after the successful end of the budget session, the markets will set for some up-move above 5600. 
In the mean time we have to accumulate the select stocks if Nifty reaches 5200-5150 range below which it it may test 5000-4950-4800. The chances of Nifty testing below 5000 is very less and only any major shocking event(like failure of Congress led Govt in the Center, global tensions, or oil price shock) could bring it down, which shall be the best buying opportunity. As of now chances of below 5000 is less, say 25%.


The upside of the market is capped at 5600-5650, beyond which market needs a positive cue, especially from RBI that interest rate may be softened soon. On this expectation and inflation figures, there may be a short term rally in the market starting from March last-April first week and may culminate if the RBI remains silent on its April, 17th policy review. If there is cut in repo-rate by 50bps(chances are fair for this magnitude in the starting of rate cuts), then the market shall take it as positive and shall further fuel the rally, which will be mainly driven by the liquidity and FIIs flows.


Technically,Nifty should get the strong support in the range of 5200-5150, below which the short term trend would become negative and Nifty may test 5050-4800. On the higher side Nifty may find crucial resistance in the range of 5500-5550 above which gate for 5630-5750 will be open.


FOR THIS WEEK(SPOT LEVELS): Support for the Nifty is at 5270 and resistance at 5420. Hence the no trading zone for the nifty is 5270-5420.
BUY CE5400 & CE5500 only above 5420 for the target of 5550-5630, keeping stop-loss of 5270. (Chances are very less in the march series)
BUY PE5300 & PE5200 only below 5270 for the target of 5200-5150, keeping the stop-loss of 5240.(Chances are high for the decline in march series)


FOLLOWING STOCKS COULD BE THE BEST STOCK PICKS FOR THE NEAR TERM DELIVERY HOLDINGS(45-60++ DAYS):


1. HDFC WARRANT(961682)-CMP 82.76: JUST KEEP ON BUYING THIS STOCKS IN THE LOT OF 1850. THOSE WHO CAN HOLD MEDIUM TERM(2-5 MONTHS) MAY GET PRICE AROUND 125++ BY 22ND AUGUST 2012. SERIOUS INVESTOR MUST BUY AT LEAST 1 LOT.


2. STANDARD CHARTERED PLC(580001)-CMP 94.20: RECOMMEDED LAST WEEK AT 79, STOCK SHOT UP 20%. THE NEXT TARGET IS 125++++. BUY AND ADD ON EVERY DIP.


3. SAINT GOBAIN(515043)-CMP46.60: THIS STOCK HAS BEEN IN OUR RADAR FOR LAST ONE YEAR AND NOW AGAIN RUMORS OF DE-LISTING COULD MOVE THE STOCK TO 65-70+++. AS THE STOCK HAS MOVED TO TRADE-TO-TRADE GROUP BUY ONLY IN DELIVERY FOR HOLDING 45-60 DAYS. 


3. TIMKEN(522113)-CMP 228.45: BUY/ADD THIS STOCK ON EVERY DIP AND HOLD FOR THE TARGET OF 300++++. NEWS FLOW MAY HIT THE MARKET SOON. BUY IN SMALL QUANTITY.


4. RPOWER(532939)-CMP 130.50: BUY AT CMP & DIPS. THE STOCK MAY SURGE TO 150++ VERY SOON. TRADERS IN F&O CAN KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 125.


5. FORTIS HEALTHCARE(532843)-CMP 107.10: BUY THIS STOCK AT CMP AND ADD ON EVERY DIP. STOCK MAY RISE TO 135-140++++ IN A SHORT TERM. ONLY DELIVERY BUYERS NEED TO BUY.


6. THOMAS COOK(500413)-CMP 64.90: BUY THIS STOCK AT CMP AND ADD ON EVERY DIP. I HAVE BEEN RECOMMENDING THIS STOCK FROM Rs.44+45 & THEN AGAIN AT Rs. 54-55 LEVELS AGAIN RECOMMENDING AT 64-65 FOR THE TARGETS ABOVE 75++. THERE IS A BUZZ OF DE-LISTING AROUND 72 LEVELS. HENCE BUY THIS STOCK.


7. UNITED SPIRITS(532432)-CMP 578.70: BUY & BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON EVERY DIP, BE IT 500 OR 450 OR 650. HOLD FOR THE MEDIUM TERM TARGET OF 700+++. EVERY BAD NEWS OF THE UNITED GROUP GETTING PRICED-IN. SOON THE WORST MAY BE OVER. ONLY THOSE WHO HAVE THEIR OWN MONEY TO INVEST NEED TO GO FOR THIS COMPANY AS IT HIGHLY VOLATILE. SHORT TERM TRADERS ARE NOT ADVISED TO BUY. ONLY DELIVERY BUYING.


ASTROLOGICALLY: Planetary configuration is very complex and tough there will be very deceptive moves in the markets. There will be weakness in the markets as said earlier till mercury is retrograde. However there will be sudden deceptive up moves also, which may confuse the traders. Its tough time to trade hence sitting out of markets is advisable, with a view to buy and add on dips the stock specific counters. There will be a short term rally after 28th March 2012 which may last around 13th April 2012. This week market seems to remain weak. Stay cautious and alert.........

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 12TH MARCH 2012 TO 16TH MARCH 2012

AS SAID, LAST WEEK NIFTY RECOVERED FROM THE RANGE OF 5200 ON POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES, HOWEVER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF CONGRESS IN THE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS ESPECIALLY U.P. LED THE WEAK SENTIMENT WHICH CHECKED THE BOUNCE BACK IN THE MARKET. THE POSSIBILITY OF UNSTABLE POLITICAL SITUATION AT THE CENTER AND WEAKENING UPA TURNED THE SENTIMENTS MURKY AS IT MAY BE A GREAT HASSLE FOR THEM TO PASS THE VARIOUS IMPORTANT PENDING BILLS AND REFORM PROCESSES. ALSO IN AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT, TO EASE THE LIQUIDITY SITUATION RBI SLASHED THE CRR BY 75bps, SIGNALLING THE CONCERN OVER THE ISSUE. THIS IS DONE IN TIME WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT RELIEF IN THE STOCK MARKET ALSO WHICH MAY BE FELT ON MONDAY. NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSED AT 5333.55 & SENSEX AT 17503.24. 


GOING FORWARD CAPITAL MARKET MAY REMAIN VOLATILE TILL RAIL BUDGET ON 14TH MARCH, RBI DECLARES IT MONETARY POLICY ON 15TH MARCH & UNION BUDGET IS ANNOUNCED ON 16TH MARCH. THE BUDGET REMAINS THE KEY TO THE MARKET AS THE FOLLOWING IMPORTANT ISSUES REMAIN TO BE WATCHED KEENLY BY THE MARKET MEN:


1.FISCAL CONSOLIDATION TO BE LAUNCHED: FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IS A STRATEGY WHICH IS TARGETED TO LOWERING THE SHORTFALLS OF THE GOVERNMENT & PILING UP OF THE DEBT. FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IS ONE OF THE TAXATION AND FINANCIAL MARKERS OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. IT IS CONSTANTLY UTILIZED TO LOWER THE FISCAL SHORTFALLS OF THE NATION. In the latest report of world bank on Friday, Indian Government is likely to miss the ambitious target for Fiscal Consolidation set in the 2011-12 budget of limiting Fiscal Deficit to 4.6% of the GDP by about 1% due to lower-than-expected revenues and increasing outlays on subsidies. The budget 2012-13 is expected to set the target a Fiscal Deficit Ratio of slightly below 5% of the GDP from likely 5.25%-5.6% in 2011-12. The key signals to spur growth could come from the reform of Direct Taxes, the implementation of long-delayed GST and the passage for the Land Acquisition and Mining Bills.


2. NEED POLICIES TO STABILIZE PETRO-PRODUCTS PRICES & CUT SUBSIDIES:   Low domestic production of Crude, low lwgacy prices, government say on fuel pricing, absence of competition in petroleum marketing are the key issues to be addressed by the givenment and focus primarily in cutting down of the fuel subsidies, developing business, fiscal, regulatory and policy environment to bridge the gap of robust demand of energy and crude oil and bleak supply depending largely on imports. Drop tax on  LNG, grant tax holiday to gas production, transparency in cross subsidy by upstream companies, etc.


3. EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF SUPPLY SIDE ECONOMY: Food Inflation was as high as 22% in Feb 2010 and now on negative side as per the last week's figure. Monsoon was normal which resulted in these figures and overall inflation. To enhance the contribution of agriculture in GDP, its expected  that in the Budget 2012-13, F.M. should focus on rationalisation of the different subsidies, decentralisation of handling of food grains to ensure food grain security, priority to increase areas under edible oils & oil seeds, dealing with the issues relating to procurement, marketing, cold chains & maintenance of buffer stocks and allocation of higher resources( triple to the current) for this sector among others especially agriculture infrastructure & agriculture research & development. 


4. NEED TO BRING POLICY REFORMS: According to FICCI it needs Policy Reforms rather than Tax-Cuts. They are placing emphasis on policy reforms in areas like infrastructure, allocation of natural resources, education & health. The rate of taxes-both direct & indirect- are already very moderate and there is little scope for further reduction. Additionally the two main tax reforms through DTC & GST are on track to be implemented and and coming Budget should consider it on prime focus. 


5. REMOVAL OR REDUCTION OF S.T.T & ANY CHANGES IN LONG TERM CAPITAL GAINS TAX: As expected by many in Stock Market, that Government may scrap the S.T.T may bring a short term cheer in the market for a moment but not a long term impact. However as heard in the street that any possibility of introduction of Long Term Capital Gains Tax may bring a devastating and cascading down effect and Markets may dis-like the move resulting in deep cut of 15%-20% fall in Indices. Hence keep close eye on this.




CONCLUDING TO THE ABOVE THE MARKET MEN(FIIs, DIIs, HNIs, ETC) WILL HAVE CLOSE EYE ON THESE FACTORS TO GAUGE THE OVERALL BUDGET AND GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY AND REALISTIC APPROACH TO REDUCE THE FISCAL DEFICIT. IF ITS REALISTIC THEN MARKETS WILL TAKE THUMBS-UP AND A PARTY WILL GO ON OPENING GATE FOR 5%-10% RALLY, ELSE MARKETS MAY CORRECT 5%-10%-15% ON ANY DIS-COMFORT ON FISCAL DEFICIT MANAGEMENT AND OTHER ISSUES LIKE CAPITAL GAINS TAX. 


MY VIEW: ONE SHOULD HOLD ONLY 25% TO 35% IN EQUITIES AND HOLD REST IN CASH BEFORE BUDGET. THEN TAKE A CLEAR CALL ON MARKET AFTER THE BUDGET BLUE PRINT IS OUT...... IT MAY BE RISKY TO HOLD LEVERAGED OR FULLY INVESTED PORTFOLIO BEFORE BUDGET THIS TIME. 
IN MY VIEW NIFTY MAY BE AROUND 5550-5600 BEFORE BUDGET, WHERE ONE SHOULD GET OUT OF THE MARKET AND SIT ON CASH OR HOLD 25% EQUITY & 75% CASH. THERE COULD BE A CORRECTION IN MARKET TAKING NIFTY TO 5000 LEVELS!!!!!!!!!!! 
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOU COULD ENTER IN SHORTS. DON'T AND DON'T ENTER IN SHORTS EVEN IF THE CORRECTION IS TRIGGERED AS THERE WILL BE SHARP RISE/REVERSAL IF THE BUDGET COMES WITH SOME POSITIVES. HENCE DON'T SPECULATE BUT TRY TO INVEST IN GOOD STOCKS.........


IN THE SHORT TERM: NIFTY IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 5150-5650. IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5650(WHICH COULD HAPPEN ONLY IF BUDGET IS GOOD) THEN NIFTY COULD BE 5750 & 5920 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM. ON THE OTHER SIDE, IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5150( WHICH COULD HAPPEN ONLY IF BUDGET IS POOR) THEN NIFTY COULD TEST 5050-4950 OE EVEN BELOW THAT IN EXTREME SHORT TERM.
   
IN THIS WEEK: SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY IS AT 5270 & RESISTANCE AT 5420. HENCE THE NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY IS 5270-5420.
BUY CALL OPTIONS(CE5400 & CE5500) IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5420, KEEPING 5270 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 5510 & 5650.
BUY PUT OPTIONS(PE5300 & PE5200) IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 5270, KEEPING 5420 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 5200-5150.


FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD FOR VALUE PICK, ANY TIME IF THE CORRECTION HAPPENS FOR HOLDING PERIOD OF 45-60 DAYS:


1. RALLIS(500355)-CMP 128.40: BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 150-160-180++++.


2. HDFC WARRANT(961682)-CMP 88.15: BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 110-120++++


3. THOMAS COOK(500413)-CMP 59.60: BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 70-75-80++++++.


4. BINANI IND(500059)-CMP 135.60: BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 170-200-210+++.


5. GUJRAT FLOURO: BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 560-600-680+++++.


6. STANDARD CHARTERED PLC(580001)-CMP 79.25: BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 90-100-110++++.


7. APTECH(532475)-CMP 91.25:BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 100-110++++.


ASTROLOGICALLY: Mercury getting retrograde on 12th March 2012 and direct on 5th April 2012, will very very unpredictable for the markets. Markets will show wild moves, which will not be easy to catch and trade. Initially it may bring a sharp fall, which may trigger any time, may be around or after budget (There are 90% chances) and then small corrective rallies could be seen from 23rd March to 29th March, then  again a fall, however this period will not be very promising for traders. Hence its better to sit aside and wait for the settlement of March series and then buy after 4th Arpil 2012. However a value pick could be done in shares mentioned above. Mars getting direct after 15th April 2012, may bring sharp rally....
There are 30% chances that I may go wrong in above astrological analysis, use your own wisdom and consult your own adviser before taking decision on this basis.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 5TH MARCH 2012 TO 9TH MARCH 2012

LAST WEEK INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET WAS QUITE VOLATILE DUE TO VARIOUS APPREHENSIONS ABOUT THE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS, BUDGET AND RBI MEET ABOUT THE CREDIT POLICY REVIEW. INDIA'S GDP GREW AT 6.1% IN Q3 OF FY2011-12 AGAINST 6.9% IN THE PREVIOUS QUARTER, WHICH IS SLOWEST IN LAST 3 YEARS DUE TO MANY FACTORS LIKE HIGHER INTEREST RATE, RISING RAW MATERIAL PRICES AND GLOBAL UNCERTAINTIES, POORLY AFFECTED THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES. UNCERTAINITIES DUE IRAN'S NUKE POLICY PUSHED THE CRUDE OIL PRICES WHICH IS WORRISOM FOR INDIAN ECONOMY WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN INDIAN MARKETS. NIFTY ENDED ON 5359.35 & SENSEX CLOSED AT 17636.80.


GOING FORWARD INDIAN STOCK MARKETS MAY REMAIN VERY VOLATILE DUE TO SERIES OF EVENTS WHICH COULD AFFECT THE SENTIMENTS. ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS IN FIVE STATES, OF WHICH U.P IS VERY CRUCIAL FOR THE MARKET AS THE GOVERNMENT AT THE CENTER NEEDS SUPPORT FROM ITS CURRENT ALLIES AND POLITICAL ADVANTAGE IN CHANGE IN STATE EQUATIONS FOR THE PASSING OF THE VARIOUS PENDING BILLS, MOST IMPORTANT OF WHICH ARE FDI IN MULTI-BRAND RETAIL, FDI IN MEDIA AND INSURANCE, PFRDA, LOK PAL. ANY SETBACK TO CONGRESS COULD AFFECT THE FUTURE OF THESE PENDING BILLS HEAVILY AND RESULT IN JOLT TO THE CAPITAL MARKETS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT IN THE SUBSEQUENT WEEK IS UNION BUDGET AND RBI POLICY, WHICH MAY DECIDE THE FUTURE OF THE INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET SIGNIFICANTLY. HENCE THE WEEK STARTING FROM 12TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH 2012 IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT AND DECISIVE FOR THE FURTHER RISE OR DOWNFALL IN INDICES. HENCE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORTHCOMING EVENTS. THE RANGE FOR THE NIFTY TILL BUDGET & RBI POLICY MAY BE 5200-5600 AND ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES IN THESE EVENTS MAY PUSH THE NIFTY ABOVE 5600 TO 5900-6000++++ LEVELS ON THE OTHER SIDE ANY NEGATIVE SENTIMENT FROM THESE EVENTS MAY RESULT IN FALL BELOW 5200 TO THE LEVELS OF 5000-4950. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT DUE TO  GLOBAL LIQUIDITY STRONG FII FLOWS COULD ARREST THE STEEP FALL IN THE CAPITAL MARKET. LTRO IN EUROPE AND POSSIBILITY OF QE3 IN AMERICA WILL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLE IN THIS. 


WHAT SHOULD YOU DO NOW??? IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION OF TIME AND ACTION. IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO HAVE PATIENCE AND CLOSELY WATCH THE DEVELOPMENTS. THOSE WHO ARE INVESTORS MAY KEEP ON BUYING AND ADDING THE QUALITY STOCKS ON EVERY FALL AND TRADERS SHOULD KEEP THE LONG POSITIONS OPEN WITH A BROAD STOP-LOSS OF 5000. IN MY PROCESS OF SEARCH AND ANALYSIS IT SEEMS THAT MARKETS MAY REMAIN VOLATILE IN A RANGE OF 5200-5600 TILL BUDGET. ANY POSITIVES FROM THE ELECTIONS RESULT MAY RISE THE MARKET TO 5600-5650 ODD LEVELS IN NIFTY AND NOT BEYOND THAT TILL BUDGET IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. CONVERSELY ANY NEGATIVES COULD MAKE THE NIFTY TO TEST 5200-5150. HOWEVER THE REAL TEST WILL GET DONE ONLY IN THE  BUDGET WEEK. 
STOCK SPECIFIC APPROACH SHOULD BE FOLLOWED WITH STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5200-5150 BY TRADERS AND 5000-4950 BY INVESTORS. SUGAR STOCKS & RETAIL STOCKS SHALL BE KEY STOCKS TO WATCH FOR. THERE COULD BE GOOD RISE OR FALL DEPENDING UPON THE ELECTION RESULTS. WATCH FOR PANTALOON RETAIL, TRENT, BAJAJ HINDUSTAN, RENUKA AND OTHER SUGAR STOCKS SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR.


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR BUYING IN DELIVERY ONLY(Not in a leveraged, 3-5 Days position) FOR HOLDING 45-60 DAYS, WITHOUT STOP-LOSS, IRRESPECTIVE OF MARKET TREND/VOLATILITY: 


1. FRESENIOUS KABI ONCOLOGY(532545)- CMP:156.90: BUY THIS STOCK AT CMP AND ON EVERY FALL FOR A VERY SHORT TERM TARGET OF 200-250++ AS ITS A DELISTING CANDIDATE.


2.TIMKEN(522113)- CMP:246.25:THIS STOCK HAS ALWAYS BEEN RECOMMENDED IN THIS BLOG AS A DE-LISTING CANDIDATE TO FETCH   A VERY GOOD VALUE TO INVESTORS. BUY AT CMP AND ADD MORE ON FALL FOR A SHORT TERM TARGET OF 300-350+++.


3.DCM(502820)-CMP 82.00: THIS STOCK HAS BEEN RECOMMENDED SEVERAL TIMES THIS YEAR TO BUY AND HOLD. EVEN AT THIS PRICE ONE SHOULD BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 100-110++++


4. THOMAS COOK(500413)-CMP 60.65: BUY THIS STOCK FOR A VERY SHORT TERM TARGET OF 70-75+++. BUY AND HOLD THIS STOCK AS A NEWS FLOW OF DE-LISTING COULD FETCH MUCH MORE VALUE. JUST BUY.........


5.ORCHID CHEMICALS(524372)-CMP 185.90: BUY THIS SHARE FOR HOLDING 45-60 DAYS AS THE SCRIPT MIGHT TEST 210-225+++ VERY SOON.


6. INGERSOLL-RAND(500210)-CMP 475: BUY THIS STOCK FOR HOLDING 60-75 DAYS AS ITS A DE-LISTING CANDIDATE, WHICH COULD FETCH GOOD VALUE TO SHARE HOLDERS. STOCK MAY SURGE TO 700+++ ON THE NEWS FLOW. BUY AS DELIVERY/ HOLDING.


Note: To get the latest update on stocks and market one could contact on Yahoo Messenger Id: "vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in"

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 27TH FEBRUARY 2012 TO 2ND MARCH 2012

AFTER THE TWO MONTHS CONTINUOUS RISE, INDIAN MARKETS SAW THE FIRST SIGN OF A PAUSE & CORRECTION TRIGGERED BY THE RISING CRUDE PRICES DUE TO IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, WIDENING FISCAL DEFICIT OF INDIA & WORRIES OF POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES BY THE ALLIES OF UPA GOVERNMENT AT THE CENTER. SENSEX ENDED AT 17923.57& NIFTY ENDED AT 5429.30


AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS POSTING INDIAN MARKETS MAY REMAIN VOLATILE AND CONSOLIDATE BETWEEN 5200 TO 5700 IN MARCH. AUTO & CEMENT SHARES WILL BE IN LIMELIGHT AS THE MONTHLY SALES DATA FOR FEBRUARY WILL BE AVAILABLE. M&M LOOKS GOOD FOR INVESTMENT. IN FMCG PACK HUL & ITC SHALL BE THE STOCKS TO WATCH FOR AS THERE COULD BE GOOD UPSIDE IN THESE. 


SERIES OF EVENTS:
29TH FEBRUARY-INDIA'S GDP DATA FOR Q3FY11-12;
1ST MARCH-INDIA'S EXPORT DATA FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY;
6TH MARCH-OUTCOME OF STATE ELECTION RESULTS(which could have sentimental effect on the stability of Government in the Center and application of pending Policies);
14TH MARCH-RAILWAY BUDGET;
15TH MARCH-ECONOMIC SURVEY REPORT TO BE RELEASED;
15TH MARCH-MID-QUARTER REVIEW OF CREDIT POLICY BY RBI
16TH MARCH-UNION BUDGET
SHELL KEEP THE MARKETS VERY VOLATILE. THERE WILL BE UPS & DOWNS MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRADE. MARKET WILL BE ON ROLLER-COASTER MOVE IN THIS PERIOD.TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO SIT OUT SIDE OF THE MARKETS TILL 16TH MARCH AS IT WILL BE VERY VOLATILE AND UNPREDICTABLE. BUYING OF CALLS & PUTS AND QUICKLY BOOKING PROFITS SHOULD BE  THE STRATEGY. HEAVY INVESTMENT BUYING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY AFTER BUDGET. IN THE BUDGET SESSION GOVERNMENT COULD ANNOUNCE A TIMELINE FOR ALLOWING 51% FDI IN MULTI-BRAND RETAIL. HENCE KEEP CLOSE EYES ON TRENT, PANTALOON, ETC.,


TECHNICALLY: NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO GET A STRONG SUPPORT AT 5320 LEVELS BELOW WHICH NIFTY WILL GET SLIPPED TO 5270 & 5200, ON THE HIGHER SIDE IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 5630 WILL MAKE NIFTY TO MOVE 5700-5750. MEDIUM TERM TREND OF THE NIFTY IS UP, WHICH WILL BE VITIATED ONLY BELOW 5200. HENCE 5200-5250-5300 IS GOOD BUYING ZONE.


IN THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY SHALL BE 5320-5510, BREAK BELOW 5320, BUY NIFTY PUT OPTIONS(PE5300 & PE5200) FOR THE TARGET OF 5270 & 5200, KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5510, ELSE IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 5510 THEN BUY NIFTY CALL OPTIONS(CE5500 & CE5600) FOR THE TARGET OF 5560-5630, KEEPING 5320 AS THE STOP-LOSS.

ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS SHALL BE ON THE UP TREND TILL 29TH FEBRUARY TO TOUCH 5550-5600 ALONG WITH HUGE VOLATILE MOVES AND THEN ANY TIME IN BETWEEN 5TH-16TH MARCH CORRECTION COULD INTENSIFY. EVERY DIP TO 5200 SHALL BE THE BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN STOCKS WITH 4-6 MONTHS INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVE. MARKETS AFTER 16TH MARCH SHALL BE ON UPTREND AGAIN AFTER CONSOLIDATION BETWEEN 5200-5700 AND APRIL COULD SEE NIFTY AROUND 5900-6000!!!!!!!!


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TRADING/SHORT TERM  DELIVERY BUYING:


1. SREI-INFRA FIN(32.20): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 40+++
2. GSPL(74.50): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 81-85-90+++
3. ITC(209.45): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 215-220++++
4. THOMAS COOK(56.75): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 60-65-70+++( PLEASE BUY THIS FOR AT LEAST 45-60 DAYS PERSPECTIVE, AS A NEWS FLOW COULD MARK A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICES. DO BUY THIS.............)


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Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 20TH FEB 2012 TO 24TH FEB 2012

LAST WEEK SENSEX AND NIFTY BOTH CROSSED 18000 & 5500 AS PREDICTED IN THE PREVIOUS POSTINGS MAKING THE SEVEN MONTHS HIGH GETTING POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES. DOMESTIC CLUES LIKE INFLATION FIGURES ALSO PLAYED POSITIVELY TO THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET.


GOING FORWARD INDIAN STOCK MARKET MAY REMAIN STRONG ON BACK OF POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES, FIIs BUYING AND LACK OF ANY TURBULENT DOMESTIC CUES. AS THE CURRENT RALLY HAS WITNESSED THE BROAD BASED PARTICIPATION OF ALMOST EVERY SECTOR LED BY BANKING, CAPITAL GOODS, POWER & REAL ESTATE IT SEEMS THAT THE RALLY MAY NOT FIZZLE OUT EASILY AND ONLY A NORMAL CORRECTION MAY TRIGGER ANY TIME, HENCE EVERY DIP WILL BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY. SENSEX MAY HEAD TOWARDS 20000 AND NIFTY AROUND 6000. STOCKS OF FMCG SECTOR LIKE HUL AND ITC & AUTO SECTOR LIKE BAJAJ & M&M MAY BE BULLISH IN NEAR TERM. ON THE GLOBAL FRONT MARKET WILL HAVE CLOSE WATCH OVER THE DEVELOPMENTS IN GREECE AND EUROPEAN DEVELOPMENTS.
TECHNICALLY IN APPROXIMATE FIGURES, BOTH SENSEX AND NIFTY HAVE CLOSED ABOVE THE 50% (SENSEX 18100 & NIFTY 5400) RETRACEMENT OF THE ENTIRE FALL FROM SENSEX 21100 TO 15100 AND NIFTY FROM 6300 TO 4500(Figures not exact). NOW THE INDICES MAY TEST 61.8% RETRACEMENT, i.e., SENSEX 18800-50 & NIFTY 5612-50. HENCE ANY CLOSE ABOVE THESE LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A RUN WHICH COULD TEST THE PREVIOUS TOPS.
IN OPTIONS OF MARCH SERIES NIFTY HAS SEEN HIGHEST BUILD UP IN 5200 PUT AND 5700 CALL, WHICH SHOW THAT THE RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE 5200-5700 IN THE NEAR TERM. HENCE ANY DIP TOWARDS 5200 SHOULD BE THE BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY AND ANY RUN TO AROUND 5700 SHALL BE THE BEST SELLING OPPORTUNITY IN THE SHORT TERM. SINCE NIFTY OI PUT-CALL RATIO IS 2.21 AND OTHER TECHNICAL PARAMETRS ALSO INDICATE OVER BOUGHT POSITION ANY SHORT TERM BLIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES ANY DIP SHALL BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY.
IN THE SHORT TERM NIFTY IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 5700-50 AND 5400-50. IF NIFTY BREACHES THE 5400 ON THE DOWNSIDE IT MAY GO FURTHER DOWN TO 5220 & 5050 ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY MANAGES TO MOVE ABOVE 5750 IT MAY SOON TOUCH 6000 ALSO. HENCE SHORTING ABOVE HIGHER LEVELS(5700-50) AND BUYING BELOW THE LOWER LEVELS(5450-5400) WILL NOT BE ADVISABLE AT ALL. ALL LONGS/BUYING FOR THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE DONE KEEPING 5400 AS STOP-LOSS AND SHORTING SHOULD BE AVOIDED in all circumstances.


FOR THIS WEEK: THE SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY IS 5510 AND RESISTANCE AT 5620. HENCE THE NO TRADING ZONE FOR NIFTY PLAYERS IS 5510-5620, AS TRADING IN THIS RANGE WILL BE TRADING THE VOLATILITY AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES ONLY.  
BUY NIFTY CALLS(CE5600 & CE5700): IF NIFTY BREACHES ABOVE 5620 FOR THE TARGET OF 5670-5750, KEEPING 5510 AS STOP-LOSS.
BUY NIFTY PUTS(PE5500 & PE5400): IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5510 FOR THE TARGET OF 5440-5400, KEEPING 5620 AS STOP-LOSS.
IMPORTANT: AS PER MY INFORMATION AND DISCUSSION WITH SOME PROMINENT ANALYSTS, NIFTY SETTLEMENT OF FEBRUARY SERIES MAY TAKE PLACE ABOVE 5700!!!!!!!! 99% CHANCES ARE THAT SETTLEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE 5600!!!!!. HENCE ONE SHOULD NOT BE SHORT( Keep close watch on this)


FOLLOWING STOCK DERIVATIVES SHOULD BE IN FOCUS:


1. BUY HUL FUTURE/CE400: (MARCH SERIES) FOR THE TARGET OF 400-420-440+++(KEEP 376 AS STOP-LOSS)


2. BUY ITC FUTURE/CE210: (MARCH SERIES) FOR THE TARGET OF 212-216-220+++(KEEP 198 AS STOP-LOSS)


3. SAIL FUTURE/CE110: (MARCH SERIES) FOR THE TARGET OF 115-118-122-125+++ (KEEP 105 AS STOP-LOSS)


FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD FOR TRADING ACTIVITY ON DELIVERY BASIS FOR 45-60 DAYS:
1. GSPL(83.45): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 100-105+++
2. TAJGVK(86.20): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 100-110+++
3. LITL(22.65): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 26-28-30+++
4. SREI INFRA FIN(33.35): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 36-38-40+++
5. SRF(291.00): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 300-320-330-350++++++
6. APOLLO TYRES(83.60): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 86-90-95-100+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.