MARKET VIEW FOR 5TH AUGUST 2011

MARKETS OPENED IN THE GREEN AND AFTER TOUCHING THE INTRA-DAY HIGH LOST THE GROUND, FOLLOWED BY THE RELENTLESS SELLING PLUNGED SHARPLY IN THE LAST HOUR OF TRADE. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5331.80, DOWN 73.00 POINTS & SENSEX CLOSED AT 17693.18, DOWN 247.37. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX CLOSED IN RED.


INDIAN MARKETS WERE IN THE GRIP OF FEAR FROM THE DECLINING U.S & EUROPEAN MARKETS COUPLED WITH DECLINE IN EARNINGS DUE TO DEMAND SLOW-DOWN ON RATE HIKES. FINANCE MINISTER HINTED THAT GOVERNMENT MAY LOOK AT THE DUAL PRICING FOR DIESEL. 15% OF THE DIESEL PRODUCED IS CONSUMED BY PASSENGER VEHICLES SO THAT THE GOVERNMENT MIGHT REMOVE THE SUBSIDY ON DIESEL FOR PASSENGER CARS. THIS GAVE UP MOVE TO COUNTERS LIKE BPCL, GAIL.


GOING FORWARD, SHARP DECLINE IN U.S MARKETS YESTERDAY NIGHT MORE THAN 4%, SHALL CERTAINLY GLOOM THE INDIAN MARKETS AND SENSEX AND NIFTY SHALL OPEN LOWER FOR MORE THAN 1% EACH. NIFTY MAY TARGET 5200.


NIFTY HAS GIVEN CORRECTION OF 6.65% IN A TIME SPAN OF JUST 7 TRADING SESSIONS. AS SAID EARLIER THE SHORT TERM CRUCIAL SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY LIES AT 5300. IF NIFTY BREACHES 5300, THE SHORT TERM TREND WOULD BECOME NEGATIVE AND IT MAY FURTHER GO DOWN TO 5210. HOWEVER SOME LEADING INDICATORS(LIKE STOCHASTIC & RSI) ARE GIVING OVERSOLD SIGNAL  OF NIFTY. SO THE SHORT TERM PULL BACK RALLY TO 5520 IS NOT RULED OUT,PROVIDED NIFTY DOESN'T CLOSES BELOW 5170. 



FOR TODAY NIFTY SHALL OPEN GAP DOWN, DUE TO GLOBAL CUES, IF NIFTY BREACHES THE SUPPORT OF 5300 THEN IT MAY GO DOWN FURTHER TO 5250 & 5210 & THEN TO 5170 ALSO. HOWEVER IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5365 A LEVEL OF 5400-5440 WOULD BECOME THE NEXT TARGET.
CONSIDERING THE GLOBAL MELTDOWN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NIFTY MIGHT TOUCH 5000 MARK AND BELOW VERY SOON.


CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR THOSE WHO ARE LONG IN FUTURES.


STRATEGY FOR TODAY:


IF NIFTY OPENS WITH GAP DOWN OF 100 POINTS ONE MUST WAIT AND NOT HURRY TO JUMP IN THE MARKET. THERE COULD BE SLIGHT RECOVERY WHICH SHOULD BE USED TO BUY PUTS OF NIFTY viz., PE5300 & PE5200.


IF NIFTY FINDS SUPPORT OF 5300 THEN BUY CE5300 & CE5400, TO BOOK PROFITS LATER ON TILL 5520


NO DELIVERY BUYING IS SUGGESTED FOR TODAY.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 4TH AUGUST 2011

ON WEAK GLOBAL CUE, MARKETS OPENED GAP DOWN AND CONTINUED TO TRADE LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ENDED LOWER. FEARS OF CREDIT DOWNGRADE BY RATING AGENCIES AND WEAK CONSUMER SPENDING AND MANUFACTURING DATA HAD DENTED SENTIMENTS IN U.S MARKETS AND THUS GLOBAL MARKETS WERE DOWN. NIFTY ENDED AT 5404.80, DOWN 51.75  AND SENSEX ENDED AT 17940.55 DOWN 169.34. BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE DOWN.MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE. HOWEVER AT THE END OF THE DAY SOME STOCKS WERE OFF THEIR LOWS AND INDICES INCHED UP FROM THE LOWS, SHOWING SOME BUYING AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND SUPPORT AROUND 5400.


GOING FORWARD MARKET IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A RANGE BOUND MOVE AND GLOBAL CUES TO GENERALLY DIRECT THE MOVE OF THE INDICES. CORPORATE RESULTS SHALL GUIDE THE MOVE OF INDIVIDUAL STOCKS.


NIFTY HAS CORRECTED ALMOST 5.68% FROM ITS RECENT HIGH 5702.25 IN SIX TRADING SESSIONS. VERY CRUCIAL SHORT TERM SUPPORT EXISTS AT 5325-5320. IF 5325-5320 IS BROKEN THE SHORT TERM TREND WILL BECOME NEGATIVE AND NIFTY WILL FURTHER GO DOWN TO 5200 LEVELS.(Actually this may happen any time in August 2nd week as the U.S. market progresses further.). TECHNICALLY SOME INDICATORS (like Stochastic & RSI) ARE GIVING OVERSOLD SIGNAL  OF NIFTY. HENCE A PULLBACK RALLY TO 5500-5520-5550 COULDN'T BE RULED OUT. TRADERS HAVING LONG POSITIONS SHOULD KEEP STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5330. 



FOR TODAY, NIFTY HAS A SUPPORT AT 5375 AND STRONG RESISTANCE AT 5440. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5375 IT MAY TEST 5350 & 5330. HOWEVER ON THE UPPER SIDE IF NIFTY SUSTAIN ABOVE 5440(RESISTANCE), NIFTY MAY TEST 5470-5500-5520-5550.


STRATEGY FOR NIFTY FUTURE/OPTION PLAYERS:


BUY NIFTY CALL CE5400 & CE5500 IF NIFTY (SPOT) SUSTAINS ABOVE 5425 AND BOOK PROFIT AT 5445-5470-5500-5520.


BUY NIFTY PUT PE5400 & PE5300 IF NIFTY(SPOT) BREAKS BELOW 5375 AND BOOK PROFIT AT 5355-5335-5310-5300.


NOTE: THERE ARE FAIR CHANCES THAT MARKET WILL BOUNCE BACK ANY TIME TODAY, HENCE KEEPING 5375 AS STOP-LOSS ONE SHOULD BUY CALL OPTIONS IN NIFTY(CE5400 OR CE5500) OR NIFTY FUTURES.


ASTROLOGICALLY: AS PREDICTED EARLIER THAT MARKETS MAY BE WEAK TILL 4TH AUGUST AND RECOVERY WILL BE SEEN FROM 5TH AUGUST. PLANETARY POSITION SUGGEST THAT MARKETS WILL SEE SLIGHT SUPPORT COMING FROM 4TH AUGUST AND 5TH AUGUST SHALL BE A BULLISH DAY.
HENCE AFTER 2 DAYS OF BEARISH MOVE AND MAKING MONEY IN PUT OPTIONS ITS BETTER TO BUY CALL NOW.


NO TRADING AND  DELIVERY POSITIONS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED TODAY.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 3RD AUGUST 2011

HEAVY SELLING WAS WITNESSED IN THE MARKET DUE TO WEAK GLOBAL CUES AND AFTER THE GAP DOWN OPENING INDICES CONTINUED TO TRADE WEAK. THE SENSEX CLOSED DOWN 204.44 AT 18109.89 AND NIFTY CLOSED AT 5456.55 DOWN 60.25 POINTS. BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS DOWN AND MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE.


AFTER MAKING HIGH A HIGH OF 5702.25 ON 26th JULY 2011, NIFTY HAS CORRECTED OF ALMOST 4.72% IN JUST 5 DAYS. NOW NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO GET A STRONG SUPPORT AT 5400. IF NIFTY BREACHED 5400, THE SHORT TERM TREND WOULD BECOME NEGATIVE AND IT MAY TEST 5300, ON THE OTHER HAND BREACH OF 5750 DENOTING REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND, ON THE HIGHER SIDE SHALL LEAD A STRONG RALLY, DUE TO SHORT COVERING & BUYING, TO 
5900 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM.


FOR TODAY, NIFTY HAS STRONG SUPPORT AT 5430 AND IS LIKELY TO FACE A STIFF RESISTANCE NEAR 5510-15. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5430, IT MAY SLIP TO 5400 & THEN TO 5360 ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5510-15 , IT MAY TEST 5540-5580.


STRATEGY FOR TODAY:
THOSE INTERESTED IN PLAYING IN NIFTY OPTIONS/FUTURES SHOULD NOT TRADE IN BETWEEN 5430---5456.55---5510.


BUY CE5500 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5510-15 ONLY AND BOOK PROFIT WHEN NIFTY REACHES 5540 & 5580.


BUY PE5400 IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 5430-25 ONLY AND BOOK PROFIT WHEN NIFTY REACHES 5400 & 5360.


(NOTE: BIAS OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE WEAK AND DOWNWARD, AS SAID EARLIER IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS).


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TRADING(Small quantity in trading/delivery is suggested):


1.RELIANCE(837.30): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 845-860 KEEPING 825 AS STOP-LOSS.


2.HCL TECH():  BUY AROUND 568-570  FOR THE TARGET OF 580-600 KEEPING 558 AS STOP-LOSS.


3.TTK HEALTH(575.50): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR 7-10 DAYS FOR THE TARGET OF 630++


4.SOLAR INDUSTRIES( 736.00):BUY IN DELIVERY FOR 30-45 DAYS FOR THE TARGET OF 820++++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 2ND AUGUST 2011

ON THE BACK OF POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES AFTER THE U.S PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED A FRAMEWORK DEBT-LIMIT DEAL AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S DEADLINE, INDIAN MARKETS OPENED STRONG HOWEVER WEAKNESS IN THE METAL COUNTERS DRAGGED THE MARKET DOWN  AND FRESH BUYING IN THE I.T & AUTO SECTORS MADE THE MARKET END ON THE POSITIVE NOTE.MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE.


MARKET IS LIKELY TO TRADE IN A RANGE OF 5500-5600 LEVELS, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RAISING OF THE U.S BORROWING LIMIT WILL BE IN FOCUS. NIFTY HAS BEEN TRADING IN THE RANGE OF 5400 AND 5750 FOR LAST ONE AND A HALF MONTH , AND ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THIS RANGE BOUND WOULD BE CONTINUING FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS. IF NIFTY BREACHES 5440, THE SHORT TERM TREND WOULD BECOME NEGATIVE AND IT MAY TEST THE LEVELS OF 5300. HOWEVER THE BREACH OF 5750 WOULD OPEN THE GATE FOR 5900 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM RANGE. 


BUY NIFTY PE5500 & PE 5600 IF NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5580(CLOSING BASIS) BY NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5580(CLOSING BASIS) THEN BUY CE5600 & CE5700.


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TRADING POSITION ONLY(1 TO 5 DAYS):


1. TATASTEEL(573.80): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 580-590 KEEPING STOP-LOSS AT 566.

2. ONGC(273.40): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 276-281 KEEPING STOP-LOSS AT 269.


3. UNITECH CE30(AUG): BUY AROUND 2.20-2.60 FOR THE TARGET OF 5-6.


4. HDIL FUT(AUG): BUY AROUND 140-144 FOR THE TARGET OF 160 KEEPING STOP-LOSS AT 135.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 1st AUGUST 2011 TO 5TH AUGUST 2011

LAST WEEK, INDIAN STOCK MARKETS, FELL ON THE OUTCOME OF MORE THAN EXPECTED RATE HIKE BY RBI, ON ITS MONETARY POLICY REVIEW ON 26TH JULY 2011. INDIA'S FOOD INFLATION DECREASED FURTHER TO 7.33% IN THE WEEK ENDED ON JULY 16TH, 2011 AGAINST THE 7.58% THE PREVIOUS WEEK, MAINLY ON ACCOUNT OF HIGHER BASE OF LAST YEAR. ON CUMULATIVE BASIS RAINFALL WAS 4% BELOW NORMAL  IN THE WEEK ENDED ON JULY 27TH. 


NOW GLOBAL CUES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE INDIAN MARKETS THIS WEEK. DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RAISING OF THE U.S BORROWING LIMIT WOULD GIVE DIRECTION TO THE MARKET. ALTHOUGH ANALYSTS STILL THINK THAT THE U.S GOVERNMENT IS UNLIKELY TO DEFAULT ON ITS DEBT, BUT IF IT DID, THE IMPLICATIONS WOULD BE HUGE. EVEN IF THE POLITICIANS FINALLY GET THEIR ACT TOGATHER AND AGREE A DEFICIT REDUCTION PACKAGE, THE RESULTING SPENDING CUTS MAY NOT BE LARGE TO APPEASE THE CREDIT RATING AGENCIES. HOWEVER, THE FALLOUT  SHOULD BE SMALLER THAN THE MUCH MORE DANGEROUS THREAT OF AN ACTUAL DEBT DEFAULT. ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT, Q1 CORPORATE EARNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN FOCUS. MONTHLY DATA OF AUTO, CEMENT & OTHER COMMODITIES FOR JULY 2011 AND ALSO EX-IM & PMI DATA ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANNOUNCED DURING THE NEXT WEEK, WILL GIVE SOME DIRECTION. MARKETS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MONSOON. ITC, ENIGINEERS INDIA, ALLAHABAD BANK WITH MEDIUM TO SHORT TERM PERSPECTIVE.  NIFTY RANGE SHOULD BE 5450-5650 UNDER NORMA CIRCUMSTANCES , BARRING THE EXTERNAL SHOCKS DUE TO THE U.S DEBT CRISIS. AVOID  BUYING IN THE MINING SCAM TAINTED COMPANIES LIKE ADANI, JSW STEEL, SESA GOA, NMDC ETC.


NOW IN TERMS OF NIFTY THE TREND DECIDING LEVEL IS 5500.
 IF NIFTY SHOW STRENGTH ABOVE 5500 LEVELS THEN WE COULD SEE RALLY TO 5550-5600-5650-5700 LEVELS.(CHANCES ARE LESS FOR NOW)
IF NIFTY SHOW WEAKNESS AND DOESN'T SUSTAINS ABOVE 5500 LEVELS  THE THERE COULD BE PROFIT BOOKING TILL 5450-5400-5350-5300.


TRADING STRATEGY FOR THE SHORT TERM TRADERS(WEEKLY): WE SUGGEST BUYING PUT OPTION OF THE STRIKE PRICE PE5500 & PE5600, KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 5570 TO ALL PUT OPTIONS AND BOOK OUT AROUND THE LEVEL OF 5420-5380.KEEP EYE ON GLOBAL MARKETS IF THE NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5350 THEN NIFTY COULD TEST 5200 ALSO, IN SUCH CASE BUY PE5300, ELSE IF NIFTY REVERSES ABOVE 5500 THEN BUY CE5500 & CE5600 TO BOOK PROFIT AROUND 5700-5750.


IN FUTURE & OPTIONS:


1. ITC FUTURE (210.05): KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 207.50 AND BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 215-220+++.


2.JINDAL SAW FUTURE(154):KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 145.80 AND BUY ON DIPS AROUND 150-152 FOR THE TARGET OF 160+++.


NO DELIVERY BASED BUYING IS SUGGESTED THIS WEEK. 


ASTROLOGICALLY: MOON WILL BE TRANSITING THROUGH LEO, VIRGO & LIBRA SIGNS THIS WEEK. MARS PROGRESSING IN GEMINI WILL MAKE THE MARKET MUCH VOLATILE AND UNCERTAIN, AS THE LORD OF GEMINI WILL BE RETRO FROM 3RD AUGUST, IT WILL REVERSE THE CURRENT TREND OF MARS' INJUNCTION FROM 3RD. HENCE IF THE MARKET REMAINS WEAK ON 1st & 2nd, 3rd & 4th  AUGUST 2011 THEN THERE WILL BE REVERSAL FROM 5th AUGUST, HOWEVER THE MOVE WILL BE VERY DECEPTIVE AS THE LORD OF LEO, WHERE MERCURY IS POSTED IS IN 12TH TO THE MERCURY ALONG WITH VENUS, WHICH SHOWS LOSSES TO TRADERS & SPECULATORS. HENCE BEST IS TO STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKETS. MERCURY RETRO WILL BE NOT A GOOD TIME TO TRADE WITH i.e., BETWEEN 3rd AUG TO 27th AUG WILL BE PERIOD TO STAY OUT OF THE MARKET AS THERE WILL BE ONE DAY UP AND ONE DAY DOWN AND VERY CONFUSING MARKET. THE RANGE FOR THE NIFTY DURING MERCURY RETRO PERIOD WILL BE 5300-5700.
THERE WILL BE WEAK STARTING OF THE WEEK BUT RECOVERY FROM 5TH AUGUST.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.