MARKET VIEW FOR 18TH MARCH 2011

RBI HIKED REPO RATE & REVERSE REPO RATE BY 25bps IN EXPECTED LINES BUT THE LANGUAGE WAS HAWKISH AS THERE IS A ROOM FOR MORE HIKES TO CONTROL INFLATION ON THE NEXT REVIEW OF CREDIT POLICY ON MAY 3RD 2011. THIS MADE MURKY SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AND IN ANTICIPATION FOR MORE RATE HIKE MARKET LOST THE GROUND AND THERE WAS PROFIT BOOKING WHICH MADE NIFTY TO CLOSE AT 5446.65. POLITICAL MESS, RISE IN THE YEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AND RISING CRUDE PRICES WERE ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROFIT BOOKING AND WEAK MARKETS. SOME INSTITUTIONAL SELLING WAS SEEN IN LARGE CAPS LIKE RELIANCE, INFOSYS, WHICH BROKE BELOW 3000 DUE TO RISING YEN, AND SBI.


NIFTY HAS VERY NARROW RANGE OF TRADE BETWEEN (5400-5420) TO (5520-5535). BELOW 5420 SENTIMENT WILL BE VERY MURKY AND THERE WILL BE MORE DOWN SIDE OPEN TILL 5200. ABOVE 5550 SENTIMENT WILL BE BULLISH AND NIFTY MAY CROSS 5600 TO TOUCH 5700 ALSO. HENCE THE BROAD RANGE OF NIFTY IS 5200-5700.


THE BULLS ARGUMENT FOR GOING HIGHER FROM HERE:
1. THERE IS A CONTINUOUS INSTITUTIONAL BUYING BY BOTH FOREIGN & DOMESTIC.
2. MARKET BREADTH IS BROAD, WHICH MEANS THAT ENTIRE MARKET IS PARTICIPATING IN THE UP MOVE. HENCE THERE MAY BE A UP SIDE BREAK OUT.
3. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT ADDITION IN THE OPEN INTEREST OF STOCK FUTURES.


THE BEARS ARGUMENT FOR GOING DOWN FROM HERE:
1. ONCE AGAIN THE COMMODITY PRICES LIKE COPPER ETC, HAVE STARTED RISING IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS. CRUDE OIL HAVE STARTED TO TRADE AROUND $100 OR ABOVE WILL BE NEGATIVE FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS.
2. VOLUME IN THE CASH & DELIVERY MARKET IS VERY LOW, SHOWING THAT LACK OF INTEREST AND PARTICIPATION WITH CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS NOT GOOD FOR MARKETS TO RISE.
3. SITUATION IN THE JAPAN COULD WORSEN AND THERE MAY BE HEAVY REDEMPTION PRESSURE BY JAPANESE INVESTORS. SEE THE RISE IN JAPANESE YEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR.


ASTROLOGICALLY: AS ALREADY SAID THAT MARKETS WILL BE WEAK & POOR TO TRADE BETWEEN 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH. SUPER MOON ON 19TH COULD CAUSE MORE NATURAL DISASTER IN DAYS TO COME. HENCE THERE WILL BE POOR SENTIMENT AND UNCERTAINTY LOOMING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET, WHICH WILL BE VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKETS. THIS MAY PUSH INDIAN MARKETS TO NEW LOWS ANY TIME!!!!!!!


TODAY MARKETS COULD OPEN HIGHER DUE TO GLOBAL CUES BUT THE MARKETS SHALL BE IN THE RANGE OF 5420-5535 ONLY. ONE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS IN CARRY OF HUGE TRADE BUT SHALL PARTICIPATE VERY LOW.




FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO TRADE AND WATCH FOR


FOR BULL & GOING LONG:


1. BOMBAY DYEING(354.55): THE STOCK HAS SOME NEWS OF LAND BANK SALE, MAY RISE IN THE SHORT TERM. GOOD DELIVERY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 380-400+++++


2. IDEA (61.75): GOOD DELIVERY/ INTRADAY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 65-67+++. KEEP STOP LOSS OF 56.


3. LIC HOUSING FINANCE(198.90): GOOD DELIVERY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 220+ IN THE SHORT TERM AND 300 IN THE MEDIUM TERM. KEEP STOP LOSS OF 184


4. LUPIN(392.45): GOOD DELIVERY/ INTRADAY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 400-408-420+++ IN THE SHORT TERM.KEEP STOP LOSS OF 380.


5. HDFC BANK(2181.50): GOOD DELIVERY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 2220-2280+++. KEEP STOP LOSS OF 2140


6. INDIAN HOTEL(77.85): GOOD FOR DELIVERY BUYING AT CURRENT MARKET PRICE OR IN FALL FOR THE LONG TERM INVESTMENT TARGET OF 300++++++




FOR BEARS & GOING SHORT/SELL:( ONLY ON FALLING MARKETS OR WEAKNESS IN THE STOCK)


1. BANK OF INDIA(449.15): STOCK IS WEAK ON CHARTS AND COULD TEST 420 IN THE NEAR TERM. KEEP STOP LOSS OF 465


2. MARUTI(1165.10): STOCK MAY SHOW WEAKNESS AS YEN IS RISING AGAINST THE DOLLAR & THE RUPEE DUE TO JAPAN FACTOR. SHORT THE STOCK FOR THE TARGET OF 1100 OR LOWER WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 1210.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 17TH MARCH 2011

MARKET BEHAVED POSITIVE TO THE TO THE GLOBAL CUES AND OUTPERFORMED TO THE ASIAN PEERS. NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5500 IS A POSITIVE SIGN FOR THE BULLS.

TODAY IS THE CREDIT POLICY REVIEW BY RBI AND MARKET HAS ANTICIPATED A HIKE OF 25 bps IN REPO & REVERSE REPO RATE. THERE ARE FOUR POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IN THE POLICY:

1. IF THERE IS 25bps HIKE IN REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE THEN THE MARKET  BEING SLIGHTLY POSITIVE BEFORE THE POLICY WILL RISE AFTER THE POLICY AND NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5560-80.

2. IF THERE IS 50bps OR MORE HIKE IN REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE THEN THE MARKET WILL PLUNG TO DEEP RED AND NIFTY MAY BREAK 5450 MARK TO THE LOWEST POINT 5370 OR LESS. ( THIS SITUATION IS NEGATICE FOR THE MARKET)

3. IF THERE IS NO HIKE IN REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE THEN THE MARKET THEN THE MARKET WILL RISE ABOVE 5550 MARK TO 5600-5620 OR MORE AND THE BULLS WILL REGAIN THE MOMENTUM AND NIFTY COULD HEAD HIGHER IN THE NEAR TERM TO 5700-5750 ALSO( THIS SITUATION IS VERY GOOD FOR THE MARKET)

4. IF THERE IS 25bps HIKE IN REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE AND THE LANGUAGE OF THE RBI REMAINS HAWKISH AND MORE PRONE TO CONTROL INFALTION THEN THE MARKET WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE AND THEN THERE COULD BE SELL-OFF LEADING NIFTY TO TOUCH LOWER LEVELS LIKE 5500-5450 (THIS SITUATION WILL BE NEUTRAL TO THE MARKET).

ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE TILL FROM 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH.

FOLLOWING STOCKS TO BE WATCHED TODAY:

1. SPICE JET(39.75): THIS STOCK MAY RISE IN THE SHORT TERM. BUY IN DELIVERY FOR TARGET OF 46-50++

2. PRAKASH INDUSTRIES(76): THIS STOCK MAY RISE IN THE SHORT TERM. BUY IN DELIVERY FOR TARGET OF 86-95++

3. ORCHID CHEM (290): THIS STOCK MAY RISE IN THE SHORT TERM. BUY IN DELIVERY FOR TARGET OF 300-310-330++ (VERY STRONG BUY)


BUY BANKING STOCKS LIKE SBI, CANBANK, AXIS BANK & ICICI BANK IF THE MARKET REMAINS HIGHER AFTER TH POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT ELSE DONT BUY ANY BANKING STOCKS.

4. CANBANK(638.85): KEEP STOP LOSS OF 620 FOR THE TARGET OF 655++++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 16TH MARCH 2011

JAPAN TOOK THE TOLL TODAY AND CORRECTED AROUND 12% FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER ASIAN MARKETS, WHICH WERE MODERATELY DOWN BETWEEN 1.5% TO 3.0%. COMMODITIES AND EUROPEAN & AMERICAN MARKETS ALSO FELL. THERE WAS EXTREME PESSIMISM IN THE MARKET HOWEVER INDIAN MARKETS RELATIVELY OUTPERFORMED.


AFTER THE INITIAL GAP DOWN OPENING AND KNEE JERK REACTION ONE TIME DURING THE DAY NIFTY MANAGED TO GO AROUND 5500 (5497.85) FROM THE BOTTOM OF 5373 HOWEVER CORRECTED AT THE END OF THE DAY TO CLOSE AROUND 5449.50,WHICH IS QUITE ENCOURAGING FOR THE BULLS. THE MOST STRIKING PART OF THIS RECOVERY WAS THAT IT WAS LED BY RELIANCE. STRENGTH IN RELIANCE INDUSTRIES SHOWS THAT THE MARKET IS RESILIENT TO THE GLOBAL WEAKNESS AND PARTICIPANTS SEE 5400 AS A STRONG SUPPORT IN NIFTY. NOW 5600-5650 SHALL ACT AS A MAJOR RESISTANCE AND CROSSOVER ABOVE 5600-5650 SHALL SEE SHARP RISE TO 5700-5800 LEVELS. HOWEVER ANY CLOSE BELOW 5400 SHALL BE DEATH KNELL FOR THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM. AS ALREADY ALERTED 5400-5600 IS NO TRADING ZONE AND ONE SHOULD NOT PARTICIPATE ACTIVELY IN THE MARKET BETWEEN THIS RANGE.


ONCE AGAIN IT IS REITERATED, THAT THIS MARKET IS IN THE BEAR PHASE AND WILL CORRECT SIGNIFICANTLY ANY TIME BY NEXT 2-3 MONTHS HENCE THOSE WHO WISH TO INVEST FOR LONG TERM MUST WAIT TO GET THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY AROUND 5000 OR BELOW.


AS ALREADY CAUTIONED THAT PERIOD BETWEEN 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH IS VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE SHARE MARKET, SEE THE IMPACT THAT ASIA, AMERICA, EUROPE ARE IN DEEP RED.INDIA IS RESILIENT TO THE GLOBAL TURMOIL DUE TO FALLING CRUDE, METAL AND RUBBER PRICES AND GOOD ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS. HENCE ANY SIGN OF STABILITY IN THE COMMODITY MARKET AND RISE IN CRUDE AND METAL PRICES MAY TRIGGER THE SHARPER CORRECTION IN DAYS TO COME.


CRUDE PRICE THOUGH FALLING WILL RISE SHARPLY AFTER THE STABILITY AND DEMAND FROM JAPAN WHICH SHALL BE NEGATIVE FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS. ALSO THE CORPORATE EARNING FIGURES SHALL GUIDE THE MARKET AFTER THE RBI MEET ON 17TH MARCH. MARKET IS PRICING IN THE RISE IN RATES BY 25bps TO 50bps.


ASTROLOGICALLY: TODAY MARKET SHALL OPEN WITH A GAP DOWN AND REMAIN WEAK FOR THE FULL DAY. RANGE FOR THE MARKET SHALL BE 5400-5518.ONE SHOULD GO LONG ABOVE 5500 IN NIFTY WITH A DEEP STOP LOSS OF 5370.


 FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO WATCH AND TRADE TODAYON THE LONG SIDE:


1. CEAT(106.40): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++  


2. J.K.TYRE(96): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 104-110++


3. VIP IND(590.25): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 630-645++


4. RCOM(101): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++


5. GAIL(340.65): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 360-375++


6. YES BK(265.65):LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 290-300++


7. INDSIND BK(244.50):LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 265-70+






SHORTING COULD BE DONE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTERS:


1. JSW STEEL (909.05): LOOKS WEAK IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TARGET OF 870-850


2. TATA MOTORS(1142.10): LOOKS WEAK IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TARGET OF 1080-1050

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 15TH MARCH 2011

NIFTY MADE A GOOD COME BACK AFTER OPENING FLAT TO WEAK START YESTERDAY. VARIOUS FACTORS LED THE RISE AND SHORT COVERING IN THE MARKET AT THE END OF THE DAY SHOWING THAT MARKET IS PREPARING ITSELF FOR THE RBI POLICY MEET EVENT.OVER ALL IT WAS A GOOD DAY WHERE NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5500.




 NOW THE RESISTANCE RANGE IS 5600-5650, WHICH SHALL BE TESTED BY THE MARKETS VERY SOON HOWEVER NIFTY MAY SEE VOLATILITY AHEAD OF RBI MEET ON 17TH MARCH AND POST POLICY, WHICH HAS PRICED IN 25bps TO 50bps HIKE IN THE REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE NIFTY MAY RALLY TO 5700-5800+++, IF THE OTHER FACTORS LIKE OIL PRICES AND GLOBAL MARKETS SUPPORT. HENCE THERE WILL BE A SHORT TERM RALLY IN THE NEAR TERM AFTER THE RBI MEET, TILL THEN THERE WILL BE A RANGE OF 5400-5600. CRUDE IS LOW BECAUSE OF FALL IN DEMAND FROM JAPAN. HENCE INDIAN MARKETS ARE ENJOYING THE PARTY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN THE MIND THAT AS THE NUCLEAR REACTORS ARE SHUT IN THE JAPAN THERE WILL BE HUGE RISE IN THE DEMAND OF THE CRUDE OIL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SHARP RALLY IN CRUDE AND METALS LIKE COPPER, ETC. HENCE OIL & GAS COMPANIES LIKE ONGC, CAIRN RELIANCE, HINDOIL, SELAN ETC WILL SEE SHARP RISE FROM NEXT WEEK.


FOR TODAY FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO BUY:


1. BAJAJ AUTO(1383.30): SHORT TERM TARGET OF 1565. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.


2. IFCI(53.70): SHORT TERM TARGET OF 56-60. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.


3. MARG LTD(105.40):SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.


4. RELIANCE(1018.35): INTRADAY TARGET OF 1030-35. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.


5. BPCL(570.45):SHORT TERM TARGET OF 575. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.DAY TRADERS MAY KEEP STOP LOSS AT 556 ( ALSO BULLISH FROM NEXT WEEK)


6. IFB IND(122.35): SHORT TERM TARGET OF 150. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 14TH MARCH 2011 TO 18TH MARCH 2011

ASTROLOGY GIVES IDEA OF THE BASIC HAPPENING IN THE COSMOS AND ITS IMPACT ON EARTH. TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN, POLITICAL SITUATION IN INDIA, FALL IN GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES AND SO ON...., BUT ITS REALLY VERY COMPLEX TO STUDY THE EFFECT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS.HOWEVER BROAD IMPACT COULD BE KNOWN IN ADVANCE TO HIGH DEGREE OF ACCURACY.


EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN LED TO FALL IN THE ASIAN MARKETS AND SO IN INDIA BUT THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE FAR GOOD IN THE LONG TERM AS THERE WILL BE NEW GENERATION OF NEW DEMAND CYCLE, MORE EMPLOYMENT OF RESOURCES, INCREASED GLOBAL BUSINESS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY & GROWTH IN JAPAN AND REST OF THE WORLD.


FALL WAS PREDICTED FROM 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH AND ALSO CAUTION WAS GIVEN TO ALL THOSE WHO TRADE ACTIVELY. AFTER THE WAVE OF PESSIMISM THERE WILL BE SHARP RECOVERY BUT BEFORE THAT THERE WILL INTENSE SELLING WHICH MAY GIVE GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BUY FOR MEDIUM TERM.THIS IS THE REASON WHY STRADDLE IN NIFTY OPTIONS WAS SUGGESTED LAST WEEK FOR BUYING BOTH CALL(S) AND PUT(S) IN 5400 & 5300 STRIKE PRICES. THOSE WHO HAVE MADE POSITIONS WILL EARN SUFFICIENT AMOUNT ON FALL & RECOVERY OF MARKETS.


RANGE OF NIFTY NOT SUITABLE FOR TRADING IS 5380-5400 TO 5550-5600. NOTE THIS RANGE VERY CLEARLY, THOSE WHO WILL SHORT OR LONG IN THIS RANGE WILL HARDLY EARN ANY PROFIT IN A CONSISTENT MANNER, THATS WHY IT WAS ADVISED TO SIT ASIDE.


AS THE MARKET IS IN BEAR PHASE, NIFTY IS SUPPOSED TO GO BACK BELOW 5200 ANY TIME, UNLESS IT BREAKS ABOVE 5650 ON STRONG UPMOVE, ONE HAS TO WAIT FOR OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER IN THE MARKET AT THE LOWER LEVELS 5200-5000 OR ABOVE 5650. THOSE HOLDING STOCKS MAY EXIT AT AN OPPORTUNITY NEAR 5550-5600 WITH STOP LOSS OF 5650-5700.


FOR TODAY THERE WILL BE GAP DOWN OPENING AND NIFTY WILL DRIFT LOWER AND MAY FIND STABILITY NEAR 5380-5400.SECOND HALF SHALL BE MORE WEAK THAN FIRST HALF. SELLING/SHORTING ON RISE SHALL BE THE BEST PLAY FOR TODAY WITH STOP LOSS OF 5500-5520(INTRA-DAY BASIS).

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.