MARKET VIEW FOR 8TH MARCH 2011

MARKET BEHAVED EXACTLY AS PREDICTED, IT OPENED WEAK AND WENT LOWER TO 5408 AND THEN RECOVERED TO 5490 AND FINALLY CLOSED WEAKISH AT 5463.MARKET REMAINED WEAK DUE TO RISING CRUDE PRICES AND POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY AT THE CENTER. RECOVERY WAS LED BY STABLE EUROPEAN MARKETS AND THEN AGAIN EVERY RISE WAS SOLD OFF.


AS CRUDE SURGES ON LIBYA WOES, IN SHORT TERM, CRUDE WILL BE TRIGGER FOR THE MARKET. NYMEX CRUDE MAY SURGE TO $130 PUSHING THE INDIAN MARKETS TO MUCH LOWER THAN AT THIS LEVELS. HENCE WAIT AND WATCH SHALL BE THE BEST STRATEGY TO PLAY ON. 


THERE WILL BE MORE VOLATILE AND UNCERTAIN MOVES THIS WEEK AND TRADING IN SUCH MARKETS MAY RESULT IN LOSSES. ITS BETTER TO TRADE IN OPTIONS RATHER THAN FUTURES & CASH MARKETS. AS NIFTY HAS ENTERED IN THE NO TRADING ZONE 5400-5600, ONE SHOULD WAIT FOR THE BREAK OF EITHER SIDE FOR AT LEAST 300 POINTS MOVE IN NIFTY. 
IN SHORT DONT TRADE IN NIFTY IN THE RANGE OF 5400-5600, WAIT FOR NIFTY TO BREAK EITHER 5400 ON THE DOWN SIDE OR 5600 ON THE UP SIDE. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5400 ON THE DOWN SIDE ( AS IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY) THEN NIFTY WILL TOUCH 5100-5050, HENCE GO SHORT BELOW 5400 WITH STOP LOSS OF 5500 ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5600 THEN IT WILL TOUCH 5900-5950 HENCE GO LONG IN NIFTY IF BREAKS 5600 ON THE UPSIDE WITH STOP LOSS OF 5500. ONE CAN MAKE SUITABLE OPTION STRATEGIES ACCORDINGLY.


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ACTION TODAY:


1. STERLITE (166.05): HAS LIMITED DOWN SIDE AND STOCK WILL MOVE UP AS COPPER AND ALUMINIUM PRICES ARE RISING AND FIIs ARE INVESTING IN METAL COUNTERS. HENCE ANY RECOVERY IN THE MARKET WILL LEAD THE STOCK TO RISE TO 200+++.


2. ON MOBILE (216.85): THE STOCK HAS DECLARED BONUS AND THE NEWS WILL MAKE THE STOCK TO RISE TILL 230-240 HENCE BUY TODAY WITH A STOP LOSS OF  203


3. HUL(281.35): STOCK MAY RISE IN THE FALLING MARKETS AS IT WILL PLAY FOR DEFENSIVE FOR PARKING MONEY IN EQUITIES BY THE FIIs.


4. RANBAXY(445.80): SHORT THIS STOCK FOR THE TARGET OF 430-415 WITH A STOP LOSS OF 451-455




ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS WILL BE WEAK FROM 7TH MARCH 2011 TO 18TH MARCH 2011, WHERE IT MAY GIVE BIG JOLT TO NIFTY. EVERY DIP WILL BE A BIG BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR THE PORTFOLIO BUILDING AND MEDIUM TO LONG TERM INVESTMENT.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 7TH MARCH 2011 TO 11TH MARCH 2011

NIFTY MADE HIGH AROUND 5600 AND CLOSED LOWER AT 5538 IN LINE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


NOW FOR THE COMING WEEK THERE WILL BE WILD SWINGS AND HIGH VOLATILITY AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TRADE. OPTIONS WILL BE THE BEST PLAY FOR INDEX TRADERS AND STOCK SPECIFIC MOVES TO CONTINUE AS USUAL


ONE THING SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND VERY CLEARLY THAT  NIFTY IS CURRENTLY IN THE DOWN TREND, WHICH WILL BE NEGATED IF IT REPEATEDLY CLOSES ABOVE 5620-5650 ZONE, WHICH IS RESISTANCE ZONE AND 200 D.M.A ( EARLIER WHICH WAS SUPPORT). HENCE THERE EMERGES TWO CLEARCUT DEMARCATION FOR NIFTY MOVEMENTS.


ABOVE 5620-30 ZONE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5680-5720-5760-5840-5900-5920-6000


BELOW 5480-60 ZONE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5420-5380-540-5300-5220-5180-5000


STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK: ONE SHOULD BUY ON DIPS(WITH A VIEW OF HOLDING 60-90 DAYS), AS THERE MAY BE GOOD VALUE BUYING BY FIIs, DIIs AND OTHERS AS MARKET IS NOW EXPECTING NO RATE HIKE ON MARCH 17TH,RBI POLICY AND COOLING-OFF OF OIL PRICES.HOWEVER ANY VALUE BUYING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY ABOVE 5620 AS THERE WILL BE CONFIRMED UPSWING ABOVE 5620 AND NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5900-6000 LIFTING ALL THE SECTORS. ALSO STOP LOSS TO ALL LONG POSITION SHOULD BE KEPT AT 5420-5400,BELOW WHICH THERE MAY BE BROAD BASED SELLING,FOR ANY REASON LIKE POLITICAL INSTABILITY,RISE IN CRUDE,UNREST IN MIDDLE-EAST,RATE HIKE BY RBI,AND SO ON. 


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT FOR DELIVERY (60-90 DAYS):

1. HDIL MAY TOUCH 290-300 VERY SOON
2. NAGAR FERT MAY TOUCH  33-34 VERY SOON.
3. RPOWER MAY TOUCH  128-132 VERY SOON.
4. UNITECH MAY TOUCH 40-44  VERY SOON.
5. IFCI MAY TOUCH  55-57 VERY SOON.
6. SUZLON MAY TOUCH 53-55  VERY SOON.
7. TATAMOTORS MAY TOUCH   1180-1220 VERY SOON.

ASTROLOGICALLY: FOR TODAY 7TH MARCH 2011 NIFTY WILL OPEN WEAK AND GO LOWER IN THE FIRST HALF, WITH SOME RECOVERY AND UPMOVE THERE AFTER AND THEN AGAIN DECLINE AND LOWS TO CLOSE WEAK.  HENCE TODAY SHORTING ON RISE AND RECOVERY WILL BE THE BEST STRATEGY TO PLAY WITH.

MARKET MAY OPEN LOWER DUE TO POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTER AFTER THE D.M.K WITHDRAWING SUPPORT FROM THE U.P.A. THOUGH THERE IS NO RISK TO THE GOVERNMENT AT THE CENTER, BUT THERE WILL BE SELLING DUE TO PROFIT BOOKING, WHICH MAY LEAD TO PANIC SELLING ALSO. HENCE ONE MAY SHORT ON RISE WITH A STOP LOSS OF 5620( INTRA DAY).

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 4TH MARCH 2011

NIFTY OPENED WEAK RECOVERED ON NEWS OF LYBIA SETTLEMENT AND THEN AGAIN THERE WAS PROFIT BOOKING AT THE END OF THE DAY. HENCE MARKET IS IN A RANGE AND SUCCESSIVE CLOSING ABOVE 5550-5600 WILL NEGATE THE CURRENT DOWN TREND AND SHALL MOVE ABOVE TO 5690-5820-5900. HOWEVER IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS LOT OF SKEPTICISM AMONG THE FIIs ON HOW THE GOVERNMENT WILL TACKLE THE INFLATION, WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE INTEREST RATES, AND HOW WILL BE THE GROWTH PERFORMANCE BY THE INDIA INC BY NEXT TWO QUARTERS AS OIL HAS NOW BEEN TO $100 WHICH MAY INCREASE BY 20% TO 30% ON UNCERTAIN GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS MAY LEAD TO PRESSURES ON MARGINS AND THE BOTTOM LINE OF THE COMPANIES. HENCE THE EARNINGS DOWNGRADES, WHICH MAY COME ANY TIME, WILL LEAD TO FALL IN THE MARKETS AND THE RANGE FOR THE NIFTY WILL NOW BE 5650-5250.


ON THE HIGHER SIDE 5600-5650 ONE CAN BUY PUTs IN NIFTY SAY PE5600, PE 5500 & PE 5400 FOR BOOKING PROFITS AROUND 5250.


TODAY NIFTY MAY OPEN GREEN ON THE STRONG GLOBAL CUES AND IN AT LEAST FIRST HOUR NIFTY MAY EVEN TOUCH 5600-5630  AREA, FOLLOWED BY THE VOLATILE MOVES BY BULLS & BEARS & FINALLY PROFIT BOOKING AND LOWER CLOSING AT THE END.




1. DISH TV (61.80) SELL/SHORT FOR THE TARGET OF 56-52 IN A DAY OR TWO.


2.SBIN(2682.50):SELL/SHORT FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 2600-2540 IN A DAY OR TWO.


3.TVS MOTORS(55.15):LOOKS HOT TO BUY FOR RALLY TILL 60-63 IN A DAY OR TWO, ON MARKETS MOVING HIGHER.

MARKET VIEW FOR 3RD MARCH 2011

NIFTY AS PREDICTED TOUCHED 5550 A RESISTANCE ZONE AND ALL SECTORS CLOSED IN GREEN. THIS IS CORRECTIVE RALLY TO THE CURRENT DOWN TREND, WHICH MAY BE NEGATED IF NIFTY MOVES  ABOVE 5555-5600 AFTER CONSOLIDATION, MAY TOUCH 5900-6000. HENCE TO SHORT ABOVE 5550-5600 WILL NOT BE A GOOD IDEA, HOWEVER IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5400 FOR MORE THAN 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS THEN IT MAY TOUCH 5300 AND BELOW THAT NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5000 ALSO.


IT SHOULD BE NOTED VERY CLEARLY THAT ONE MUST PARTICIPATE IN THE MARKET WITH OPEN MIND & DYNAMIC OUTLOOK. MAKING A SINGLE VIEW OF BULLISHNESS AND BEARISHNESS WILL HAMPER IN GENERATING PROFITS AND RESULT IN LOSSES. HENCE IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5600 THEN GO LONG IN NIFTY FR TARGET OF 5900-6000 KEEPING STOP LOSS OF  5550-5500. HOWEVER ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT SAFE & SURE SHOT SHORTS COULD BE DONE BELOW 5200-5170 WITH STOP LOSS OF  5300 FOR TARGET OF 5000-4920.


CREDIT POLICY BY RBI ON 17TH MARCH 2011 IS THE NEXT BIG EVENT WHICH MAY BE HANG OVER FOR THE MARKET TO RISE ABOVE 5600. HENCE ONE SHOULD WAIT FOR SOME TIME BEFORE START BUYING IN CASH AT THESE LEVELS.


ASTROLOGICALLY THE PLANETARY CONFIGURATION SHOWS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME BEARISHNESS TO 5200-5000 LEVELS BY NEXT 15-25 DAYS DUE TO VARIOUS GLOBAL FACTORS, WHICH WILL BE GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LONG TO MEDIUM TERM PORTFOLIO BUILDING.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 1ST MARCH 2011 POST BUDGET ANALYSIS

AS EXPECTED MARKET WITNESSED HUGE VOLATILITY AND DRAMA, FULL OF DECEPTION BOTH FOR BULLS & BEARS. BUDGET AS EXPECTED IS VERY GOOD AS FAR AS CONSUMPTION STORY OF INDIA IS CONCERNED, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, EMPHASIS ON SUPPLY SIDE ECONOMY ALONG WITH WELCOMING THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN ECONOMY ARE THE BASIC FOCUS OF THE BUDGET. HENCE MARKET HAS WELCOMED THE BUDGET BUT AS SAID EARLIER THAT MARKET WILL SLIDE DOWN ANY TIME IN MARCH TO THE LEVELS OF 5000 OR LOWER. HOWEVER BEFORE SHORTING THE MARKET ONE SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THE THAT THE RANGE 5280-5440 SHOULD BE AVOIDED FOR TRADING AS BREAK ON EITHER SIDE WILL INVITE FRESH MOVES OF 150-200 POINTS MOVE. 


NOW COOLING DOWN OF THE CRUDE OIL, RESTORATION OF PEACE AT LYBIA, RISE IN AMERICAN MARKETS, WILL TAKE MARKETS TO 5550-5600 AND VICE-VERSA MAY KICK BACK THE MARKET BELOW 5200 TO THE LEVELS OF 5000 ALSO. HENCE THOSE WHO WISH TO BUILD A LONG TERM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM PORTFOLIO SHOULD WAIT FOR SOME MORE DOWN SIDE CORRECTION MAY BE BELOW 5000 TO BUY THE STOCK IN THE STAGGERED MANNER. 


FOLLOWING STOCK/SECTORS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED TO BE BOUGHT:


RELIANCE, HINDOIL EXP, ESSAROIL, PETRONET, CAIRN & ONGC IN OIL & GAS


SBI, ICICIBANK, INDUSIND BANK, YES BANK IN BANKING 


POLARIS, TCS, HEXAWARE,  IN I.T


TATAMOTORS, M&M IN AUTO


CIPLA, RANBAXY, LUPIN IN PHARMA

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.